Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2025-05-08

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-05-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59235 13499 164 107 10 0 0 0
OW 690 1444 364 537 195 14 2 18
VODI 1859 313 256 1038 685 201 57 55
ODI 1823 49 68 519 1285 751 246 50
CDI 0 13 30 255 1233 4613 3178 90
VCDI 0 1 7 143 979 5277 35863 43594
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-05-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59747 12972 103 44 10 1 0 0
OW 708 1460 397 570 182 59 5 2
VODI 1882 482 231 882 782 242 64 70
ODI 1790 150 110 540 1444 918 232 56
CDI 0 35 45 289 1727 5542 3125 112
VCDI 0 17 18 89 971 5765 36302 40638
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-05-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59706 13437 78 65 5 0 0 0
OW 803 1441 363 436 130 15 1 0
VODI 1897 426 389 1207 702 143 28 9
ODI 1771 28 64 634 1988 792 74 21
CDI 0 35 22 354 2063 6782 1920 118
VCDI 0 13 7 108 634 4498 35771 41832
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-05-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59314 13552 89 102 21 1 0 0
OW 778 1743 354 466 115 28 2 10
VODI 1940 480 411 1335 827 192 59 29
ODI 1734 82 92 774 1863 922 196 56
CDI 0 56 89 447 2448 5475 2523 150
VCDI 0 11 25 198 1013 6087 38109 36612
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59297 13505 97 110 24 2 0 0
OW 795 1796 358 478 121 30 2 15
VODI 1940 473 396 1334 850 218 70 28
ODI 1734 86 98 768 1865 939 200 94
CDI 0 51 89 424 2456 5539 2668 109
VCDI 0 13 22 208 971 5977 37949 36611

Date: 2025-05-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59662 13075 72 91 26 0 0 10
OW 836 2029 345 439 159 44 10 30
VODI 1969 829 473 1274 813 221 106 67
ODI 1688 208 171 915 1820 831 271 86
CDI 0 236 156 690 2529 5378 2855 72
VCDI 0 99 78 315 783 5816 42569 30664
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59648 13115 76 100 34 3 0 20
OW 851 1995 339 469 168 54 19 31
VODI 1969 847 483 1223 800 240 108 62
ODI 1687 193 165 929 1857 812 269 83
CDI 0 224 146 642 2474 5633 2872 73
VCDI 0 102 86 361 797 5548 42543 30660

Date: 2025-05-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60236 13110 93 93 4 1 0 3
OW 829 2176 374 401 59 9 7 15
VODI 2015 748 642 2066 820 88 33 32
ODI 1626 97 119 1014 3427 1092 101 67
CDI 0 42 41 353 2508 6613 2186 95
VCDI 0 26 14 53 214 5255 44865 27148
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60187 12514 76 108 8 0 2 66
OW 875 2005 349 497 142 36 15 47
VODI 1999 923 414 1384 918 336 108 49
ODI 1645 325 220 1029 2004 1085 280 61
CDI 0 356 162 736 3283 5059 3852 67
VCDI 0 76 62 226 677 6542 42935 27070

Date: 2025-05-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61770 11926 36 12 1 0 8 0
OW 813 2517 416 303 47 11 27 0
VODI 2058 895 649 2020 1022 112 108 0
ODI 1574 182 138 1016 2926 1036 225 0
CDI 0 71 76 504 2895 6882 2948 68
VCDI 0 10 17 56 463 9723 48531 16718
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61734 11365 74 33 6 4 85 0
OW 845 2184 317 388 128 18 48 0
VODI 2040 1112 458 1431 1038 263 157 0
ODI 1596 422 276 1117 2171 1209 367 5
CDI 0 449 148 765 3192 6381 4130 25
VCDI 0 69 59 177 819 9889 47060 16756

Date: 2025-05-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61875 11859 58 44 8 2 0 17
OW 895 2735 384 340 101 10 16 31
VODI 2218 1119 664 2110 1041 109 77 59
ODI 1269 299 175 1305 2538 904 335 48
CDI 0 147 134 785 2664 6754 3482 32
VCDI 0 146 32 201 695 6706 49793 16594
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61804 11506 118 108 45 7 1 103
OW 825 2098 310 469 173 37 32 29
VODI 2087 1355 430 1556 979 242 179 20
ODI 1541 538 292 1309 1892 1043 530 16
CDI 0 608 214 972 3173 6647 4679 22
VCDI 0 200 83 371 785 6509 48282 16591


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