Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2025-05-01

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-04-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59528 13305 206 180 43 4 0 0
OW 799 1282 291 503 280 49 8 0
VODI 1941 327 242 659 673 369 76 0
ODI 1630 21 41 380 732 866 422 7
CDI 0 3 11 158 632 2948 3779 61
VCDI 0 0 0 77 632 2785 37291 47569
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-04-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58887 13778 180 163 39 3 1 0
OW 710 1400 328 552 275 66 34 0
VODI 1849 368 241 736 705 436 187 0
ODI 1849 29 34 352 737 1043 437 0
CDI 0 10 22 186 688 2490 4013 14
VCDI 0 1 5 86 634 2993 38786 45463
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-04-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59708 13409 134 93 15 2 0 0
OW 704 1329 364 474 173 27 7 0
VODI 1827 308 285 1036 652 170 21 10
ODI 1859 22 34 386 1099 725 91 14
CDI 0 7 22 162 811 3881 2025 86
VCDI 0 0 0 51 718 3973 38222 45874
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-05-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59464 13399 155 99 12 0 0 0
OW 703 1334 398 545 204 25 4 14
VODI 1855 254 269 1086 669 176 49 34
ODI 1829 33 58 456 1155 663 205 44
CDI 0 12 21 237 979 4236 3106 97
VCDI 0 5 15 169 969 5025 37302 43446
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59459 13439 169 128 16 0 0 0
OW 708 1310 380 514 202 26 4 14
VODI 1855 241 273 1126 667 182 52 26
ODI 1829 31 59 443 1166 676 216 37
CDI 0 13 20 220 1008 4285 3315 105
VCDI 0 3 15 161 929 4956 37079 43453

Date: 2025-05-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59963 12809 116 53 9 0 0 0
OW 695 1466 437 517 181 25 2 0
VODI 1872 419 234 999 699 228 41 78
ODI 1806 108 112 518 1337 782 244 50
CDI 0 30 34 273 1523 4792 3238 104
VCDI 0 2 15 95 907 5777 36918 41302
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59953 12924 159 77 15 0 0 0
OW 705 1361 399 509 202 27 5 8
VODI 1875 423 243 995 717 245 48 64
ODI 1803 108 103 536 1315 811 260 43
CDI 0 16 30 257 1548 4920 3408 127
VCDI 0 2 14 81 859 5601 36722 41292

Date: 2025-05-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59802 13447 104 41 5 0 0 0
OW 793 1234 410 450 75 15 3 0
VODI 1881 346 360 1287 650 105 18 2
ODI 1790 28 46 549 2122 870 96 16
CDI 0 13 18 169 1867 6931 2306 44
VCDI 0 11 5 66 438 4445 34993 42959
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59778 13112 157 108 13 2 1 0
OW 818 1285 383 612 229 55 6 8
VODI 1899 492 223 928 781 259 64 62
ODI 1771 142 125 484 1422 1167 276 54
CDI 0 30 47 302 1834 5375 3850 128
VCDI 0 18 8 128 878 5508 33219 42769

Date: 2025-05-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58758 14293 94 56 17 1 0 0
OW 770 1571 379 476 130 14 1 5
VODI 1911 451 392 1291 770 179 45 16
ODI 1752 45 61 716 1922 763 136 40
CDI 0 52 69 382 2484 6212 1821 170
VCDI 0 8 12 159 861 5510 36148 39867
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58756 13780 116 127 34 1 0 3
OW 772 1628 377 543 231 52 2 35
VODI 1926 659 241 1037 784 286 99 68
ODI 1737 235 142 670 1820 998 299 76
CDI 0 99 113 488 2138 5485 3553 129
VCDI 0 19 18 215 1177 5857 34198 39787

Date: 2025-05-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59447 13343 100 85 14 4 0 3
OW 817 1886 317 467 134 31 4 18
VODI 1954 647 467 1274 822 209 93 46
ODI 1715 157 158 812 1838 904 216 92
CDI 0 185 135 609 2579 5253 2772 97
VCDI 0 47 55 320 1837 6672 38330 33845
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59389 12722 140 130 18 5 0 29
OW 876 2077 268 486 192 66 10 65
VODI 1973 804 401 1052 843 279 166 72
ODI 1695 364 182 870 1878 1264 341 60
CDI 0 232 161 647 2305 5131 4233 50
VCDI 0 66 80 382 1988 6328 36665 33825


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