Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2024-01-11

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2024-01-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62338 12677 370 138 13 1 0 0
OW 891 1167 207 265 123 18 0 0
VODI 1892 532 167 330 373 114 16 0
ODI 1978 238 87 233 457 222 15 0
CDI 0 204 67 299 801 1537 913 10
VCDI 0 105 54 335 1019 7015 33275 50314
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-01-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61908 12229 304 125 65 0 0 0
OW 784 1237 271 297 143 29 0 0
VODI 1890 562 149 369 301 118 4 0
ODI 1750 203 73 222 420 283 30 0
CDI 0 191 41 251 734 1658 1318 3
VCDI 0 139 63 293 1183 7470 34356 49344
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-01-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61559 13018 148 89 21 2 1 0
OW 756 1510 273 179 51 5 7 0
VODI 1753 387 255 444 310 40 13 0
ODI 1960 64 76 334 414 236 17 0
CDI 0 11 24 246 640 1691 526 11
VCDI 0 1 4 145 956 7353 32672 52608
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-01-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60863 13154 98 79 20 3 0 0
OW 789 1547 187 206 60 6 1 0
VODI 1851 646 235 459 274 44 3 0
ODI 1735 165 96 261 496 286 11 0
CDI 0 56 42 257 671 1634 504 17
VCDI 0 17 17 102 643 5957 34319 52999
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60863 13252 103 104 36 3 0 0
OW 787 1443 192 196 60 10 2 0
VODI 1853 650 216 426 267 44 4 0
ODI 1735 158 105 264 483 271 13 0
CDI 0 61 41 272 680 1685 566 18
VCDI 0 21 18 102 638 5917 34253 52998

Date: 2024-01-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60179 13224 97 85 25 13 0 0
OW 801 1563 190 248 82 27 7 0
VODI 1849 687 249 480 277 67 32 0
ODI 1740 200 82 313 455 295 41 0
CDI 0 139 92 284 741 1504 520 2
VCDI 0 33 38 254 1394 7173 34893 50435
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60178 13300 116 104 29 16 0 0
OW 801 1508 173 252 87 26 7 0
VODI 1850 662 251 469 274 71 36 0
ODI 1740 191 78 305 432 295 44 0
CDI 0 142 88 281 761 1515 564 3
VCDI 0 43 42 253 1391 7156 34842 50434

Date: 2024-01-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59835 13401 81 96 23 7 2 0
OW 831 2099 293 235 87 34 11 0
VODI 1852 405 289 756 269 50 18 0
ODI 1735 73 59 300 552 172 23 0
CDI 0 80 47 224 799 1683 290 9
VCDI 0 28 44 282 1360 6904 32841 52631
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59841 12955 100 97 43 17 7 0
OW 817 1735 192 203 107 42 16 0
VODI 1838 822 291 488 181 65 29 0
ODI 1757 228 80 413 352 133 43 0
CDI 0 209 68 293 819 1229 361 9
VCDI 0 137 82 399 1588 7364 32729 52631

Date: 2024-01-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60386 12627 83 69 17 2 0 0
OW 792 1971 256 235 123 30 3 0
VODI 1836 640 364 484 256 71 4 0
ODI 1754 111 96 395 332 129 18 0
CDI 0 71 41 414 823 1076 390 29
VCDI 0 94 46 224 1245 8609 32052 52612
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60386 12231 83 72 34 13 0 0
OW 784 1779 180 189 102 42 2 0
VODI 1830 910 315 365 227 85 15 0
ODI 1768 266 142 424 261 155 41 0
CDI 0 162 101 424 759 966 393 14
VCDI 0 166 65 347 1413 8656 32016 52627

Date: 2024-01-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60614 12467 108 99 17 0 0 0
OW 810 1930 162 168 58 27 0 0
VODI 1832 903 226 324 187 33 4 0
ODI 1760 338 115 295 256 108 41 0
CDI 0 220 125 304 542 915 479 0
VCDI 0 50 58 341 1241 6757 33186 53710
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60566 11484 95 102 29 8 0 0
OW 846 1886 105 119 60 26 2 0
VODI 1819 1420 179 243 145 53 10 0
ODI 1785 554 174 279 188 95 27 0
CDI 0 448 153 392 506 765 709 0
VCDI 0 116 88 396 1373 6893 32962 53710


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