Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2023-12-07

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-12-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2797 4544 213 316 23 1 0 0
OW 74 573 258 555 220 60 3 0
VODI 4 187 73 187 262 288 48 0
ODI 0 74 20 92 131 310 45 0
CDI 0 42 23 68 173 641 266 1
VCDI 0 0 11 84 370 2605 13786 16438
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-12-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1810 4270 214 311 8 0 0 0
OW 71 1092 235 553 131 26 0 0
VODI 3 180 89 554 445 374 7 0
ODI 0 74 44 134 151 389 14 0
CDI 0 26 8 73 205 698 337 0
VCDI 0 4 8 71 469 2515 14366 15907
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-12-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2035 4294 181 147 12 0 0 0
OW 94 957 218 294 75 13 0 0
VODI 7 174 171 852 324 93 8 0
ODI 0 24 7 131 394 227 35 0
CDI 0 20 11 29 127 616 315 0
VCDI 0 3 2 45 226 2000 14380 17325
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-12-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2493 3466 153 143 26 0 0 0
OW 125 1076 169 227 91 6 0 0
VODI 5 469 222 790 284 68 4 0
ODI 0 44 16 193 344 164 36 0
CDI 0 27 10 18 204 690 178 0
VCDI 0 35 9 39 160 1944 12935 19003
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2489 3461 169 167 36 0 0 0
OW 125 1054 174 215 80 7 0 0
VODI 9 497 195 747 265 67 9 0
ODI 0 48 24 220 342 162 34 0
CDI 0 30 7 27 226 756 232 0
VCDI 0 27 10 34 160 1880 12878 19003

Date: 2023-12-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1179 3719 174 340 15 0 0 0
OW 149 1143 188 456 163 9 0 0
VODI 45 409 119 371 686 124 0 0
ODI 0 31 18 129 221 424 49 0
CDI 0 20 3 65 85 1048 527 0
VCDI 0 37 18 51 130 1371 10820 21530
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1198 3644 203 431 37 0 0 0
OW 101 1154 150 391 173 0 0 0
VODI 74 477 133 343 657 146 3 0
ODI 0 32 14 138 202 372 44 0
CDI 0 17 3 61 101 1083 566 0
VCDI 0 35 17 48 130 1375 10783 21530

Date: 2023-12-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1229 3062 190 330 102 0 0 0
OW 197 640 168 368 137 0 0 0
VODI 3 85 100 387 350 28 0 0
ODI 0 3 3 116 616 194 9 0
CDI 0 2 3 9 584 1179 161 0
VCDI 0 1 1 9 152 1621 8959 24868
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1186 2717 221 477 247 0 0 0
OW 207 826 123 338 315 13 0 0
VODI 32 238 108 282 659 222 10 0
ODI 4 7 8 100 424 478 89 0
CDI 0 3 2 8 132 903 748 0
VCDI 0 2 3 14 164 1406 8282 24868

Date: 2023-12-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 540 2677 199 419 346 17 0 0
OW 69 613 120 256 378 73 0 0
VODI 6 132 62 284 428 129 0 0
ODI 0 11 14 133 225 359 2 0
CDI 0 3 5 31 144 1048 179 0
VCDI 0 0 0 42 336 2627 9878 24081
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 532 2247 182 398 436 31 0 0
OW 40 849 110 267 401 122 0 0
VODI 43 308 75 268 396 389 0 0
ODI 0 30 30 151 175 622 71 0
CDI 0 2 3 39 123 1183 879 0
VCDI 0 0 0 42 326 1906 9109 24081

Date: 2023-12-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 387 1997 205 352 370 4 0 0
OW 56 527 167 221 403 89 0 0
VODI 17 249 83 334 380 227 0 0
ODI 0 15 18 95 414 351 3 0
CDI 0 1 2 14 297 1155 65 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 377 2687 8232 26071
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 344 1584 184 365 478 20 0 0
OW 63 612 124 150 343 117 0 0
VODI 41 488 118 295 417 417 3 0
ODI 12 104 48 194 336 407 34 0
CDI 0 1 1 9 300 1628 301 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 367 1924 7962 26071


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