Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2024-01-25

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2024-01-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69751 14958 534 925 277 120 2 0
OW 61 507 144 328 135 26 7 0
VODI 0 274 139 394 210 86 22 0
ODI 0 122 55 222 279 153 35 0
CDI 0 107 36 179 532 494 177 39
VCDI 0 127 92 398 1480 7886 22822 62913
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-01-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69858 14416 639 864 296 142 18 0
OW 61 392 166 485 154 55 14 0
VODI 0 213 64 462 206 98 15 0
ODI 0 124 31 198 325 159 21 0
CDI 0 88 43 106 469 626 223 103
VCDI 0 130 70 323 1127 6174 26000 62090
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-01-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68814 14949 684 1028 317 127 0 0
OW 61 379 112 550 192 46 0 0
VODI 0 239 66 412 490 87 0 0
ODI 0 92 54 119 496 180 2 0
CDI 0 67 54 111 510 627 81 121
VCDI 0 28 47 286 733 4917 19575 70395
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-01-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67201 16273 867 1035 245 101 0 0
OW 61 412 99 499 171 39 0 0
VODI 0 258 107 464 384 73 0 0
ODI 0 119 74 225 482 187 8 0
CDI 0 102 49 217 452 434 56 21
VCDI 0 47 60 320 1026 5520 21043 68317
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67201 16279 864 1056 257 109 0 0
OW 61 380 100 500 171 34 0 0
VODI 0 268 106 437 403 79 1 0
ODI 0 119 70 228 454 182 9 0
CDI 0 103 48 211 454 442 56 16
VCDI 0 62 68 328 1021 5508 21041 68322

Date: 2024-01-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68076 15375 623 1067 239 114 0 0
OW 61 537 88 472 276 44 1 0
VODI 0 359 66 303 517 72 8 0
ODI 0 218 60 160 534 79 22 0
CDI 0 162 117 128 607 318 75 76
VCDI 0 69 124 543 1119 5357 23784 65198
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68076 15368 638 1155 253 117 1 0
OW 61 488 65 416 304 37 0 0
VODI 0 374 71 288 503 75 9 0
ODI 0 229 56 137 540 81 20 0
CDI 0 168 111 126 590 379 73 75
VCDI 0 93 137 551 1102 5295 23787 65199

Date: 2024-01-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67268 17291 597 696 187 63 0 0
OW 62 537 162 486 111 6 0 0
VODI 0 242 118 545 319 21 0 0
ODI 0 106 50 262 642 117 1 0
CDI 0 102 65 220 669 699 63 6
VCDI 0 56 44 334 1279 5697 21591 66334
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67269 16521 582 707 239 79 0 0
OW 61 613 106 441 162 24 2 0
VODI 0 454 83 405 327 99 10 0
ODI 0 221 71 219 414 186 8 0
CDI 0 186 31 183 469 423 52 1
VCDI 0 339 163 588 1596 5792 21583 66339

Date: 2024-01-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68841 15345 525 633 252 111 0 0
OW 75 603 195 436 125 15 0 0
VODI 0 338 71 543 339 30 4 0
ODI 0 192 39 281 666 114 7 1
CDI 0 171 38 194 838 415 122 49
VCDI 0 284 129 731 1551 7562 21989 63194
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68818 14661 501 715 274 131 0 0
OW 91 517 159 383 137 23 5 0
VODI 7 397 97 350 416 81 11 0
ODI 0 240 39 313 488 196 33 2
CDI 0 258 19 207 726 332 222 98
VCDI 0 860 182 850 1730 7484 21851 63144

Date: 2024-02-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67374 15650 694 1058 342 99 0 0
OW 89 516 101 544 202 12 0 0
VODI 0 416 65 453 503 59 0 0
ODI 0 231 26 206 667 215 4 0
CDI 0 203 32 224 625 799 120 3
VCDI 0 332 162 865 1843 8214 22375 61725
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67310 15240 705 1265 469 104 0 0
OW 112 345 70 435 277 36 0 0
VODI 25 310 37 250 509 119 0 0
ODI 14 211 24 165 421 378 39 1
CDI 2 274 28 142 474 749 178 83
VCDI 0 968 216 1093 2032 8012 22282 61644


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