Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2023-10-19

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-10-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17531 5679 355 686 219 12 0 0
OW 0 240 124 488 555 56 0 0
VODI 0 26 38 232 560 164 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 77 414 362 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 117 970 197 1
VCDI 0 0 0 2 22 1079 5988 9653
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16525 5985 341 637 252 14 0 0
OW 0 302 80 337 704 88 0 0
VODI 0 109 65 202 392 485 21 0
ODI 0 18 12 95 279 338 48 0
CDI 0 0 0 37 276 707 148 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 93 1597 6899 8778
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15574 6331 433 794 203 16 0 0
OW 0 133 106 512 233 24 0 0
VODI 0 8 16 282 448 132 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 38 558 478 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 202 1641 185 18
VCDI 0 0 0 1 37 1031 6236 10173
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14532 6489 435 908 266 19 0 0
OW 0 179 49 398 493 58 0 0
VODI 0 20 21 261 540 213 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 28 293 525 24 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 144 1102 369 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 49 1133 6898 10414
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14527 6470 440 1009 339 12 0 0
OW 5 187 39 332 454 47 0 0
VODI 0 31 26 232 509 245 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 22 300 559 30 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 114 973 393 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 69 1214 6867 10414

Date: 2023-10-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12954 7065 441 852 343 52 0 0
OW 29 307 96 326 398 117 0 0
VODI 0 46 47 218 448 420 4 0
ODI 0 1 3 65 239 419 23 0
CDI 0 0 0 26 170 779 104 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 89 2321 7581 9877
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12963 7065 445 979 425 66 0 0
OW 20 290 87 189 358 107 0 0
VODI 0 64 55 227 401 397 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 62 268 490 26 0
CDI 0 0 0 29 134 713 112 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 101 2335 7573 9877

Date: 2023-10-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12238 7546 397 749 275 171 7 0
OW 3 256 107 382 224 81 10 0
VODI 0 17 43 435 455 234 23 0
ODI 0 0 1 76 412 306 30 0
CDI 0 0 0 32 336 269 153 0
VCDI 0 0 0 14 234 3343 7740 9267
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12171 7506 394 667 223 165 3 0
OW 70 301 109 450 212 48 11 0
VODI 0 12 45 463 590 235 19 0
ODI 0 0 0 73 427 302 35 0
CDI 0 0 0 29 327 387 130 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 157 3267 7765 9267

Date: 2023-10-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13478 6157 423 737 300 84 0 0
OW 29 206 82 283 324 68 0 0
VODI 0 55 18 332 519 295 0 0
ODI 0 9 2 65 317 443 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 13 149 819 13 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 59 3988 7392 9202
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13412 5983 403 625 201 78 0 0
OW 85 367 102 427 301 48 0 0
VODI 10 75 20 312 642 248 0 0
ODI 0 3 0 59 417 629 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 76 954 11 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 31 3740 7394 9202

Date: 2023-10-27:

Best estimate Forecast
...observations not yet available ...observations not yet available


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