Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-10-12

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-10-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 121397 18180 764 1440 466 187 9 0
OW 0 1025 309 856 797 229 9 0
VODI 0 219 188 544 663 617 69 0
ODI 0 28 59 341 499 685 184 0
CDI 0 4 21 243 635 1422 1256 1
VCDI 0 0 2 109 456 3552 16919 12664
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 120506 17296 656 1364 704 89 2 0
OW 29 1316 359 1033 852 200 15 0
VODI 0 172 162 667 956 682 107 0
ODI 0 38 24 383 371 736 352 0
CDI 0 16 33 185 485 945 1251 0
VCDI 0 0 5 84 409 3033 16888 14643
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 116278 20422 1108 1899 454 37 0 0
OW 2 261 164 1262 453 47 0 0
VODI 0 14 34 816 1003 152 2 0
ODI 0 0 11 133 1294 459 37 0
CDI 0 0 0 53 710 2120 552 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 92 1990 16287 18898
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 116138 19197 864 1507 438 38 0 0
OW 17 954 242 1091 712 67 0 0
VODI 0 128 112 723 1089 181 1 0
ODI 0 14 15 211 941 546 14 0
CDI 0 0 10 95 485 1567 522 1
VCDI 0 0 0 27 357 3369 17840 17535
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 116109 19556 938 1794 531 64 0 0
OW 46 620 175 839 575 65 0 0
VODI 0 103 100 658 1124 158 1 0
ODI 0 14 20 227 927 572 12 0
CDI 0 0 10 95 462 1443 468 1
VCDI 0 0 0 41 403 3466 17896 17535

Date: 2023-10-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 116025 17339 670 967 463 161 0 0
OW 215 1313 514 1254 884 128 1 0
VODI 3 276 194 817 952 360 13 0
ODI 0 56 49 288 699 584 20 0
CDI 0 2 34 170 544 1213 200 2
VCDI 0 0 1 113 544 4462 16734 18784
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 116117 17330 756 1201 638 212 0 0
OW 126 1310 421 898 683 103 3 0
VODI 0 275 206 944 961 297 10 0
ODI 0 68 43 259 708 563 17 0
CDI 0 3 31 171 516 1129 224 2
VCDI 0 0 5 136 580 4604 16714 18784

Date: 2023-10-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 112802 19007 1034 1253 254 40 0 0
OW 52 960 465 1202 302 77 0 0
VODI 3 25 81 1204 889 101 2 0
ODI 0 0 22 214 1959 559 31 15
CDI 0 0 0 126 775 2906 144 24
VCDI 0 0 0 14 319 3978 16631 19578
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 112836 18006 931 1446 636 197 8 0
OW 21 1509 348 923 531 227 15 0
VODI 0 381 208 897 1328 768 50 0
ODI 0 83 73 332 668 679 61 0
CDI 0 13 25 231 550 1148 247 2
VCDI 0 0 17 184 785 4642 16427 19615

Date: 2023-10-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 108634 18164 981 2000 568 67 0 0
OW 48 1793 462 1801 822 169 0 0
VODI 3 243 154 869 1431 309 6 0
ODI 0 4 19 152 1073 945 35 0
CDI 0 0 3 110 571 2191 657 1
VCDI 0 0 0 2 340 4129 15684 22608
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 108650 18306 956 2480 986 265 1 0
OW 34 1280 330 1035 985 330 25 0
VODI 1 544 258 779 1067 1063 129 0
ODI 0 50 47 377 536 1042 247 0
CDI 0 19 16 169 553 827 703 4
VCDI 0 5 12 94 678 4283 15277 22605

Date: 2023-10-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 105988 17477 1046 1670 776 45 0 0
OW 71 1175 392 1587 1644 294 0 0
VODI 2 458 253 1269 2034 891 1 0
ODI 0 9 13 255 864 1119 39 0
CDI 0 0 1 107 573 1633 162 0
VCDI 0 0 0 60 601 6553 18999 18987
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 106050 17231 1137 2085 1515 436 0 0
OW 10 1121 249 1193 1922 728 0 0
VODI 1 697 236 1061 991 1485 26 0
ODI 0 61 79 381 728 1020 264 0
CDI 0 9 4 192 697 906 596 0
VCDI 0 0 0 36 639 5960 18315 18987


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