Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2023-10-05

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-10-09

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1593 226 339 91 14 0 0
OW 0 42 99 390 85 13 0 0
VODI 0 13 23 505 325 27 4 0
ODI 0 0 15 95 798 105 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 68 305 1059 99 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 78 1421 11668 17397
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1452 213 470 191 35 0 0
OW 0 117 58 447 441 115 13 0
VODI 0 48 46 186 552 330 69 0
ODI 0 25 19 116 105 343 149 0
CDI 0 6 27 123 195 240 608 0
VCDI 0 0 0 56 198 1576 10936 17397

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1066 517 52 82 11 0 0 0
OW 0 15 10 62 46 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 33 42 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 7 31 12 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 1 15 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 15 290 820
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1066 516 51 110 45 0 0 0
OW 0 16 8 34 46 7 0 0
VODI 0 0 3 33 29 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 7 10 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 1 9 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 21 290 820

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2346 2724 170 316 68 7 0 0
OW 0 5 26 176 134 27 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 96 224 70 2 0
ODI 0 0 0 10 260 182 32 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 58 692 351 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 30 1658 318
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2346 2729 196 534 351 108 0 0
OW 0 0 0 55 205 164 5 0
VODI 0 0 0 9 110 370 50 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 70 247 232 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 8 119 529 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 1227 318

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3773 1519 80 112 0 0 0 0
OW 0 3 26 95 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 3 39 4 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3773 1504 97 172 0 0 0 0
OW 0 18 12 74 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3771 2795 37 19 0 0 0 0
OW 0 58 32 43 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 6 82 20 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 70 7 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 3 139 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 13 150 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3767 2339 30 35 0 0 0 0
OW 4 465 30 56 30 0 0 0
VODI 0 49 15 54 52 41 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 11 86 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 32 97 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 51 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 696 2107 87 44 0 0 0 0
OW 0 20 36 149 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 212 54 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 47 188 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 100 558 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 5 397 625 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 696 1896 13 30 0 0 0 0
OW 0 198 58 45 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 33 52 155 26 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 151 56 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 71 240 117 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 13 825 625 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3782 2224 72 54 0 0 0 0
OW 0 9 15 135 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 21 9 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 5 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3782 2020 25 4 0 0 0 0
OW 0 161 29 52 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 52 33 121 6 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 34 8 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10026 1252 22 2 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 7 14 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10026 1250 29 14 0 0 0 0
OW 0 2 0 10 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6350 2491 113 278 309 18 0 0
OW 0 15 28 58 9 21 0 0
VODI 0 2 4 83 26 16 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 30 78 10 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 145 273 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 323 1011 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6350 2423 79 263 312 47 0 0
OW 0 65 37 25 2 9 0 0
VODI 0 11 27 70 11 11 0 0
ODI 0 8 1 71 22 6 0 0
CDI 0 1 1 20 132 26 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 88 562 1015 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12209 758 15 6 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12209 758 15 6 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4793 689 31 32 9 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 33 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 26 17 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 40 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 7 29 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 21 63 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4793 689 30 46 13 0 0 0
OW 0 0 1 28 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 19 27 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 29 5 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 5 23 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 23 63 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8587 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8587 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 20209 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 20209 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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