Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2023-10-05

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-09-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12634 4715 78 118 24 0 0 0
OW 0 930 149 293 56 0 0 0
VODI 0 105 122 665 390 36 0 0
ODI 0 0 5 144 1110 479 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 29 431 2013 87 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 44 696 4901 1828
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11354 5322 103 138 19 0 0 0
OW 0 773 214 301 144 2 0 0
VODI 0 68 60 565 610 188 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 77 456 945 56 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 111 2107 434 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 256 4646 3129
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9746 7205 193 115 2 0 0 0
OW 0 264 151 261 15 0 0 0
VODI 0 17 24 476 173 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 88 543 130 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 592 2036 246 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 50 1499 6124 2108
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10718 5880 108 105 18 0 0 0
OW 0 563 138 220 50 3 0 0
VODI 0 107 85 305 190 57 0 0
ODI 0 16 19 185 214 228 1 0
CDI 0 1 12 68 420 1312 519 0
VCDI 0 0 0 25 124 1761 4864 3766
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10711 5929 129 151 22 0 0 0
OW 7 572 123 172 52 3 0 0
VODI 0 60 87 331 167 60 0 0
ODI 0 6 16 176 240 224 7 0
CDI 0 0 7 64 446 1388 519 0
VCDI 0 0 0 14 89 1686 4858 3766

Date: 2023-10-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8522 7620 63 61 3 0 0 0
OW 0 841 201 247 57 7 0 0
VODI 0 124 149 431 129 29 0 0
ODI 0 2 13 286 252 108 7 0
CDI 0 0 1 130 379 615 214 0
VCDI 0 0 0 17 183 1606 4471 5314
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8502 7568 98 100 30 0 0 0
OW 20 849 160 221 39 5 0 0
VODI 0 169 152 443 119 34 0 0
ODI 0 1 17 299 227 99 11 0
CDI 0 0 0 108 458 542 189 16
VCDI 0 0 0 1 130 1685 4492 5298

Date: 2023-10-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8279 7859 286 199 0 0 0 0
OW 0 101 152 465 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 9 553 174 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 92 558 33 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 237 976 34 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 48 625 4765 6619
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8275 6983 159 149 6 0 0 0
OW 4 820 154 327 154 42 1 0
VODI 0 156 127 446 244 92 25 0
ODI 0 1 7 269 149 183 54 0
CDI 0 0 0 119 387 236 362 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 85 1081 4357 6619

Date: 2023-10-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7398 7457 325 442 3 0 0 0
OW 2 285 128 617 135 0 0 0
VODI 0 32 17 323 456 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 60 484 79 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 210 695 18 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 84 978 4478 7349
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7392 6954 245 350 41 0 0 0
OW 8 589 135 490 151 5 0 0
VODI 0 217 59 403 568 171 2 0
ODI 0 14 27 90 285 256 37 0
CDI 0 0 4 88 187 413 160 0
VCDI 0 0 0 40 140 915 4297 7349

Date: 2023-10-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8173 5507 193 272 8 0 0 0
OW 209 1043 202 587 169 0 0 0
VODI 0 90 32 400 401 24 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 77 419 127 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 242 463 21 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 104 1505 5041 6756
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8210 5612 243 344 88 0 0 0
OW 172 677 90 474 268 34 0 0
VODI 0 295 69 299 587 300 26 0
ODI 0 29 8 111 148 393 134 0
CDI 0 27 12 51 79 469 109 0
VCDI 0 0 5 74 173 923 4793 6756


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