Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2023-10-05

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-09-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22885 5905 274 410 62 4 0 0
OW 0 270 160 513 86 9 0 0
VODI 0 4 25 480 529 31 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 90 663 239 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 264 946 489 27
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 277 4620 6597
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22905 5529 246 373 34 0 0 0
OW 0 500 196 561 192 2 0 0
VODI 0 20 36 509 486 83 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 124 563 298 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 306 885 426 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 491 6384 4709
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21526 6463 431 789 59 0 0 0
OW 0 66 89 438 260 3 0 0
VODI 0 3 10 371 453 140 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 74 494 465 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 263 1281 113 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1632 10066 376
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19394 7247 444 904 166 15 0 0
OW 0 217 71 577 583 91 0 0
VODI 0 6 2 159 577 368 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 34 201 685 38 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 124 714 821 5
VCDI 0 0 0 0 11 281 7022 5101
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19394 7378 470 1067 264 16 0 0
OW 0 86 44 398 491 56 0 0
VODI 0 6 3 160 516 348 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 46 234 572 26 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 134 777 736 5
VCDI 0 0 0 0 23 385 7119 5101

Date: 2023-10-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18869 6094 452 1108 305 43 3 0
OW 0 280 102 573 862 165 30 0
VODI 0 14 15 104 562 630 114 0
ODI 0 2 0 24 87 650 201 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 25 562 785 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 65 5122 8017
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18869 6225 504 1329 494 45 2 0
OW 0 150 59 331 670 179 24 0
VODI 0 13 6 121 526 493 77 0
ODI 0 2 0 28 124 584 173 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 27 699 634 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 115 5345 8016

Date: 2023-10-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18401 6219 426 737 127 7 0 0
OW 0 23 66 533 234 33 0 0
VODI 0 0 3 336 463 91 6 0
ODI 0 0 0 24 791 271 36 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 129 1302 417 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 95 4320 10775
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18401 6120 459 1141 516 123 0 0
OW 0 122 33 378 564 235 17 0
VODI 0 0 3 103 537 656 94 0
ODI 0 0 0 8 113 511 329 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 14 230 874 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 44 3465 10775

Date: 2023-10-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17816 6116 409 873 217 0 0 0
OW 3 78 39 445 436 16 0 0
VODI 0 21 11 181 642 114 2 0
ODI 0 4 1 20 530 408 20 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 94 1145 431 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 1 409 4400 10983
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17819 5995 401 1057 608 105 0 0
OW 0 165 41 326 593 238 11 0
VODI 0 51 16 116 591 676 185 0
ODI 0 7 2 20 107 476 380 0
CDI 0 1 0 0 20 425 637 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 1 172 3640 10983

Date: 2023-10-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17531 5679 355 686 219 12 0 0
OW 0 240 124 488 555 56 0 0
VODI 0 26 38 232 560 164 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 77 414 362 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 117 970 197 1
VCDI 0 0 0 2 22 1079 5988 9653
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17531 5674 395 786 488 138 0 0
OW 0 231 89 364 618 246 1 0
VODI 0 36 29 247 528 694 114 0
ODI 0 4 5 84 168 484 449 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 77 222 600 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 8 859 5028 9654


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