Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-10-05

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-09-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 129394 14704 658 1076 190 4 0 0
OW 0 1216 327 1016 239 12 0 0
VODI 0 111 157 1279 1175 84 0 0
ODI 0 0 5 263 1996 859 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 37 836 3334 656 27
VCDI 0 0 0 0 53 1356 12244 13734
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 125838 17189 570 905 204 102 0 0
OW 0 1337 434 959 376 45 0 0
VODI 0 123 122 1157 1206 415 1 0
ODI 0 18 13 272 1097 1398 83 0
CDI 0 1 14 50 507 3185 946 1
VCDI 0 0 0 30 100 1040 15392 11918
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 124183 18512 884 1390 163 14 0 0
OW 0 370 288 790 294 18 0 0
VODI 0 29 59 955 700 171 0 0
ODI 0 0 4 253 1132 677 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 71 1011 3559 384 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 167 5152 22579 3234
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 122425 18261 751 1422 498 102 6 0
OW 0 849 245 888 640 102 6 0
VODI 0 144 120 582 786 436 8 0
ODI 0 20 55 297 479 939 47 0
CDI 0 1 23 200 649 2148 1402 5
VCDI 0 0 0 66 398 3920 18263 9865
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 122418 18457 803 1642 600 103 7 0
OW 7 713 200 647 550 67 5 0
VODI 0 95 129 601 701 417 8 0
ODI 0 10 46 311 530 820 41 0
CDI 0 0 16 210 701 2251 1310 5
VCDI 0 0 0 44 368 3989 18361 9865

Date: 2023-10-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 120124 18485 646 1460 568 208 16 0
OW 0 1226 354 871 922 182 36 0
VODI 0 211 205 619 706 669 124 0
ODI 0 45 42 392 373 764 216 0
CDI 0 19 38 233 502 1220 1079 0
VCDI 0 0 6 112 466 3220 15846 14843
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 120104 18575 739 1728 785 214 15 0
OW 20 1095 264 594 711 190 30 0
VODI 0 258 194 652 657 534 85 0
ODI 0 42 54 397 381 691 192 0
CDI 0 16 37 242 593 1267 879 17
VCDI 0 0 3 74 410 3367 16116 14826

Date: 2023-10-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 119468 18669 905 1284 488 39 0 0
OW 0 167 279 1155 285 61 0 0
VODI 0 15 36 1105 721 116 6 0
ODI 0 0 15 196 1470 318 36 0
CDI 0 0 0 69 619 2765 457 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 83 2220 15465 18535
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 119464 17576 778 1684 912 190 0 0
OW 4 1042 233 826 748 295 18 0
VODI 0 193 176 647 813 760 119 0
ODI 0 33 20 380 311 701 383 0
CDI 0 7 28 217 583 566 1237 0
VCDI 0 0 0 56 299 3007 14207 18535

Date: 2023-10-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 117857 18262 968 1767 396 37 0 0
OW 5 407 213 1195 621 51 0 0
VODI 0 65 50 696 1202 157 2 0
ODI 0 7 10 168 1120 516 20 0
CDI 0 0 2 77 550 1966 449 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 168 2445 15069 20525
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 117854 17512 841 1827 843 174 0 0
OW 8 850 213 923 801 275 11 0
VODI 0 322 108 662 1207 872 187 0
ODI 0 45 58 201 434 750 417 0
CDI 0 12 23 198 322 865 797 0
VCDI 0 0 0 97 450 2236 14128 20525

Date: 2023-10-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 118427 15881 664 1148 455 105 0 0
OW 209 1445 375 1141 758 84 0 0
VODI 0 204 135 781 996 209 7 0
ODI 0 36 38 267 872 493 18 0
CDI 0 0 13 147 459 1447 232 1
VCDI 0 0 0 63 453 4049 17054 18382
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 118464 15793 714 1296 796 264 4 0
OW 172 1109 224 875 921 296 9 0
VODI 0 525 159 641 1145 999 151 0
ODI 0 75 53 282 331 880 590 0
CDI 0 57 39 179 195 699 715 0
VCDI 0 7 36 274 605 3249 15842 18383


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