Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2023-09-21

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-09-26

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 538 4163 365 312 5 0 0 0
OW 0 69 165 616 83 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 6 709 570 22 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 54 1730 209 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 296 4156 432 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 2401 18221 1779
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 538 3398 246 351 60 10 0 0
OW 0 733 190 657 389 89 0 0
VODI 0 101 96 487 612 465 28 0
ODI 0 0 4 172 1168 646 225 0
CDI 0 0 0 24 456 3912 5979 203
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1666 12421 1576

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 787 1138 46 55 5 0 0 0
OW 0 16 5 9 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 3 23 3 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 7 22 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 13 286 81 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 2 113 484 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 787 1123 43 54 5 0 0 0
OW 0 26 8 8 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 12 3 22 3 6 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 6 9 51 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 12 268 359 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 1 96 205 0

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3983 2579 213 344 4 0 0 0
OW 0 8 24 234 72 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 378 279 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 28 747 31 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 157 729 19 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 33 118 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3983 2537 165 342 31 0 0 0
OW 0 48 64 343 293 3 0 0
VODI 0 2 10 217 278 44 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 76 352 146 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 299 354 10 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 6 246 127 0

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4379 1214 44 17 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4379 1214 44 17 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5888 1136 4 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 18 30 18 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 46 10 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 92 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5888 962 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 139 2 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 53 32 32 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 32 59 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 45 2 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2021 1460 2 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 131 75 21 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 15 211 26 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 13 466 62 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 90 720 9 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2021 1294 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 200 16 8 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 89 58 107 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 9 18 130 381 48 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 201 734 9 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4382 1832 30 13 0 0 0 0
OW 0 4 9 26 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 35 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4382 1772 3 2 0 0 0 0
OW 0 61 27 14 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 9 39 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 19 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10873 458 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10873 458 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6336 3060 230 374 98 0 0 0
OW 0 19 24 106 51 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 161 130 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 16 385 9 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 93 464 53 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 15 72 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6336 3061 241 410 132 0 0 0
OW 0 18 12 129 67 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 102 192 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 16 248 33 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 118 452 117 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 3 8 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12327 659 2 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12327 659 2 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5137 515 29 11 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1 3 14 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 6 6 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 32 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 19 28 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5137 515 25 4 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1 7 22 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 14 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 29 28 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 14 2 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8587 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8587 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 20209 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 20209 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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