Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2023-09-21

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-09-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95114 3964 287 457 32 0 0 0
OW 0 62 85 234 95 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 12 383 200 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 171 1239 111 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 480 2634 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2812 721 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94150 4883 264 427 21 0 0 0
OW 0 42 63 291 63 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 9 346 218 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 130 802 416 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 41 241 2289 271 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2593 1540 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94856 4070 280 342 56 0 0 0
OW 0 50 58 181 70 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 17 311 158 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 110 647 58 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 312 3034 405 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1608 2471 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94553 4143 276 410 48 0 0 0
OW 0 40 65 217 56 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 18 285 181 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 125 515 57 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 409 2296 453 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2110 2830 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94553 4159 300 456 52 0 0 0
OW 0 23 42 208 62 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 15 256 226 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 114 446 61 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 423 2292 459 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2111 2822 0

Date: 2023-09-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94153 4404 274 435 71 0 0 0
OW 0 36 44 234 74 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 22 208 219 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 92 485 78 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 381 1402 367 9
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1209 4850 43
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94153 4409 286 497 85 0 0 0
OW 0 31 26 201 74 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 28 169 280 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 95 397 84 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 394 1294 382 8
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1311 4834 44

Date: 2023-09-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93631 4653 325 475 102 0 0 0
OW 0 27 53 180 74 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 4 288 181 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 43 524 29 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 175 849 103 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 560 5892 926
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93631 4626 333 516 153 1 0 0
OW 0 40 24 201 96 4 0 0
VODI 0 14 21 171 248 16 0 0
ODI 0 0 4 79 323 82 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 19 236 864 865 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 477 5129 926

Date: 2023-09-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93401 4757 300 476 81 0 0 0
OW 0 21 51 194 79 5 0 0
VODI 0 0 3 245 184 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 69 366 35 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 231 551 88 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 452 4466 3032
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93401 4721 297 481 119 4 0 0
OW 0 50 38 187 91 4 0 0
VODI 0 7 17 228 183 21 3 0
ODI 0 0 2 73 271 48 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 276 618 380 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 353 4167 3032

Date: 2023-09-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93875 4084 306 548 104 0 0 0
OW 0 16 18 210 97 3 0 0
VODI 0 2 10 134 256 17 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 29 223 141 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 141 375 80 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 9 383 2723 5309
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93875 4074 279 528 121 1 0 0
OW 0 23 39 174 98 2 0 0
VODI 0 5 13 129 240 18 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 69 179 147 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 28 168 369 172 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 24 382 2629 5309


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