Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2023-09-14

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-09-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21417 8036 176 85 1 0 0 0
OW 0 399 273 374 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 19 36 1016 108 0 0 0
ODI 0 4 1 792 1465 140 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 102 1572 4101 496 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 31 3930 1285 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22875 6283 300 229 2 0 0 0
OW 3 526 199 415 29 0 0 0
VODI 0 41 63 698 393 0 0 0
ODI 0 2 18 388 1433 98 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 178 1954 2663 135 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 21 4733 2184 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22158 7590 432 427 19 0 0 0
OW 0 45 88 397 76 0 0 0
VODI 0 12 4 749 454 19 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 110 2070 613 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 530 4705 879 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 16 2385 2084 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 24066 6057 235 288 22 0 0 0
OW 0 140 140 383 41 0 0 0
VODI 0 23 53 767 289 42 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 314 1502 765 17 0
CDI 0 0 0 30 981 2194 1529 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 12 2651 3316 8
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 24066 6116 276 341 22 0 0 0
OW 0 97 113 359 23 0 0 0
VODI 0 7 40 799 369 31 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 253 1661 713 19 0
CDI 0 0 0 30 759 2593 1668 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 13 2315 3175 8

Date: 2023-09-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 24481 5738 198 213 16 0 0 0
OW 0 239 167 359 27 2 0 0
VODI 0 63 70 728 244 36 0 0
ODI 0 0 20 434 1205 707 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 135 966 2391 1015 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 51 1385 4957 15
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 24481 5847 275 287 20 0 0 0
OW 0 164 83 327 25 1 0 0
VODI 0 29 94 718 331 28 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 415 1343 645 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 122 748 2680 1262 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 42 1167 4708 15

Date: 2023-09-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 23034 7359 281 174 11 0 0 0
OW 0 102 186 432 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 3 1071 189 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 113 1799 96 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 444 3602 156 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 13 922 5769 91
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 23034 7128 275 276 12 0 0 0
OW 0 273 110 304 21 2 0 0
VODI 0 64 74 744 276 39 0 0
ODI 0 0 12 307 1217 517 15 0
CDI 0 0 0 159 894 3175 820 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 38 894 5091 91

Date: 2023-09-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 23430 6842 405 226 5 0 0 0
OW 0 187 160 456 24 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 10 917 229 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 160 1526 110 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 729 3325 310 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 11 1545 5243 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 23430 6550 344 253 8 0 0 0
OW 0 340 119 290 37 0 0 0
VODI 0 144 110 738 203 28 0 0
ODI 0 1 3 352 1167 317 15 0
CDI 0 0 1 127 1094 3188 729 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 15 1451 4809 0

Date: 2023-09-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 24069 5925 219 156 5 0 0 0
OW 0 305 199 581 55 1 0 0
VODI 0 10 34 707 389 22 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 272 1142 263 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 25 598 3141 793 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 40 798 5906 201
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 24069 5841 205 227 10 0 0 0
OW 0 292 121 345 53 0 0 0
VODI 0 105 115 565 373 13 0 0
ODI 0 2 12 348 923 431 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 257 830 3016 992 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 40 765 5704 201


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