Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-09-07

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-09-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 124544 20256 689 498 33 0 0 0
OW 0 1006 655 1105 47 0 0 0
VODI 0 22 159 3528 847 1 0 0
ODI 0 2 1 1106 7628 875 0 0
CDI 0 5 2 59 4785 11199 879 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 134 2835 4148 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 123709 20932 625 597 3 0 0 0
OW 0 1390 685 1086 45 0 0 0
VODI 0 46 232 3611 628 0 0 0
ODI 0 2 2 1503 7317 470 0 0
CDI 0 5 0 82 6007 10459 532 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 233 3711 3136 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 128178 18473 807 598 0 0 0 0
OW 0 193 516 1219 24 0 0 0
VODI 0 11 20 3236 668 0 0 0
ODI 0 2 0 866 8795 650 2 0
CDI 0 3 2 11 3288 12464 1134 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 27 3247 2614 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 126762 19898 769 437 4 0 0 0
OW 0 569 536 1116 32 0 0 0
VODI 0 39 113 2921 801 0 0 0
ODI 0 3 1 1267 6803 1860 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 52 4299 10851 977 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 75 5340 1521 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 126762 19732 815 596 5 0 0 0
OW 0 679 477 913 44 0 0 0
VODI 0 96 124 2914 864 0 0 0
ODI 0 2 3 1331 6451 1762 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 38 4515 10591 938 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 135 5698 1560 0

Date: 2023-09-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 129843 16865 560 449 0 0 0 0
OW 0 796 576 1131 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 54 174 3059 602 0 0 0
ODI 0 2 11 1716 6777 973 20 0
CDI 0 0 0 222 4017 9893 371 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 65 6489 2371 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 129843 16598 642 627 0 0 0 0
OW 0 999 443 1002 20 0 0 0
VODI 0 117 221 3019 585 0 0 0
ODI 0 3 15 1703 6414 1045 16 0
CDI 0 0 0 226 4391 9534 371 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 61 6776 2375 0

Date: 2023-09-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 129532 18179 754 583 0 0 0 0
OW 1 324 538 1194 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 43 3837 550 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 489 10382 358 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1431 13018 173 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 13 2824 2807 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 129531 16892 547 604 6 0 0 0
OW 2 1295 396 948 70 0 0 0
VODI 0 298 337 2559 712 56 0 0
ODI 0 27 54 1684 5541 587 2 0
CDI 0 0 1 308 5964 7255 197 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 88 8302 2781 0

Date: 2023-09-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 128851 18393 980 995 33 0 0 0
OW 0 491 456 1227 155 0 0 0
VODI 0 15 70 2827 814 83 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 639 8659 1197 21 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 2110 9272 1751 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 15 5099 2890 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 128831 17056 734 858 36 0 0 0
OW 20 1386 375 819 130 0 0 0
VODI 0 422 354 2415 680 66 0 0
ODI 0 35 44 1461 5087 565 14 0
CDI 0 0 0 136 5767 6736 1017 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 86 8284 3631 0

Date: 2023-09-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 130674 16831 615 708 111 0 0 0
OW 0 786 549 1089 165 0 0 0
VODI 0 69 125 2557 800 59 0 0
ODI 0 0 18 909 7292 1438 19 0
CDI 0 0 0 91 2934 8130 1258 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 22 5207 4576 16
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 130674 15137 549 815 107 0 0 0
OW 0 1738 240 671 190 0 0 0
VODI 0 764 412 1996 704 37 0 0
ODI 0 47 106 1529 4272 577 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 343 5904 6960 743 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 147 7260 5110 16


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