Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2023-08-31

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-08-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93977 4946 369 383 10 0 0 0
OW 0 29 42 343 47 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 10 349 260 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 99 722 68 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 914 2212 408 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1546 2359 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-08-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92513 6506 304 360 25 0 0 0
OW 0 40 62 336 85 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 7 284 293 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 106 634 169 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 25 819 2088 1038 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 124 1940 1337 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-08-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95661 3514 289 252 4 0 0 0
OW 0 25 60 293 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 7 439 223 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 62 1045 358 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 20 967 3179 336 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1487 862 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-08-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94998 3992 342 361 53 0 0 0
OW 0 12 59 371 26 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 4 451 215 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 160 1134 121 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 30 1161 2891 570 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 94 1403 652 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94998 3979 343 394 54 0 0 0
OW 0 25 60 336 32 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 439 218 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 183 1107 109 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 21 1165 2837 563 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 107 1469 659 0

Date: 2023-09-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94397 5000 220 236 3 0 0 0
OW 0 121 81 302 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 37 420 163 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 262 966 47 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 45 1646 3130 46 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 109 1765 87 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94397 5000 217 281 3 0 0 0
OW 0 114 78 262 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 13 41 420 138 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 255 966 29 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 47 1655 2932 46 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 126 1981 87 0

Date: 2023-09-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96193 3426 231 303 1 0 0 0
OW 0 25 68 320 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 636 144 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 127 1421 42 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 1082 4199 234 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 573 59 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96193 3298 187 396 10 0 0 0
OW 0 131 61 281 27 0 0 0
VODI 0 22 53 343 180 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 323 731 38 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 48 1598 3068 197 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 111 1708 96 0

Date: 2023-09-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96104 3503 261 375 0 0 0 0
OW 0 23 52 378 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 11 552 110 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 272 1256 117 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 586 3450 366 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1642 37 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96104 3368 196 465 5 0 0 0
OW 0 119 70 298 20 0 0 0
VODI 0 40 55 338 181 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 402 613 34 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 77 1110 3000 366 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 24 2175 37 0

Date: 2023-09-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95886 3852 262 213 0 0 0 0
OW 0 49 91 344 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 18 468 103 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 365 1200 70 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 563 3148 61 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 12 2241 133 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95886 3732 251 365 0 0 0 0
OW 0 135 63 253 50 0 0 0
VODI 0 36 54 332 217 0 0 0
ODI 0 4 3 341 491 51 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 112 1064 2820 58 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 58 2588 136 0


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