Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-08-31

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-08-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 116435 24833 1446 1114 13 0 0 0
OW 3 601 845 2004 69 1 0 0
VODI 0 20 118 3561 1213 26 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 801 6534 646 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 3233 12718 1730 0
VCDI 0 4 0 0 1 3944 5079 39
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-08-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 117475 24578 1093 1011 32 0 0 0
OW 0 832 940 1729 111 0 0 0
VODI 0 42 133 3273 1365 29 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 918 6095 636 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 35 5100 10509 2649 32
VCDI 0 4 0 0 186 5244 2961 35
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-08-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 122529 21368 1170 676 11 0 0 0
OW 0 254 673 1514 31 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 22 4038 718 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 533 8999 715 0 0
CDI 0 5 1 26 4388 11343 1005 0
VCDI 0 1 0 0 30 2765 4218 6
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-08-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 123551 20792 914 659 59 0 0 0
OW 0 699 676 1227 53 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 78 3821 688 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1119 8412 301 0 0
CDI 0 6 1 38 4912 11069 897 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 134 3040 3893 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 123551 20979 1007 799 62 0 0 0
OW 0 496 540 1142 62 0 0 0
VODI 0 24 119 3524 768 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 1369 8434 334 0 0
CDI 0 5 1 30 4785 11092 941 0
VCDI 0 1 0 0 147 2984 3849 0

Date: 2023-09-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 125342 19541 534 459 7 0 0 0
OW 0 1131 764 1082 39 0 0 0
VODI 0 32 172 3724 631 1 0 0
ODI 0 2 1 1236 7787 456 0 0
CDI 0 5 0 64 5750 10345 934 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 173 3336 3500 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 125342 19932 735 623 11 0 0 0
OW 0 682 551 1118 35 0 0 0
VODI 0 90 177 3361 743 2 0 0
ODI 0 2 7 1396 7664 564 0 0
CDI 0 5 1 67 5746 10175 1021 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 188 3397 3413 0

Date: 2023-09-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 128061 18214 839 544 1 0 0 0
OW 0 166 576 1277 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 6 3516 641 2 0 0
ODI 0 2 1 408 9893 337 1 0
CDI 0 4 0 13 2880 13662 585 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 25 2601 2775 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 128061 17125 609 817 34 0 0 0
OW 0 1076 469 884 163 0 0 0
VODI 0 179 340 2592 1151 25 0 0
ODI 0 2 4 1390 6650 1120 0 0
CDI 0 5 0 75 5256 11083 936 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 203 4374 2425 0

Date: 2023-09-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 128906 17746 733 598 0 0 0 0
OW 0 295 539 1217 34 0 0 0
VODI 0 15 55 3066 724 0 0 0
ODI 0 3 1 1047 7918 1190 0 0
CDI 0 2 1 24 3096 11146 2097 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 28 3684 2883 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 128906 16458 470 743 17 0 0 0
OW 0 1236 444 814 87 0 0 0
VODI 0 357 392 2629 732 0 0 0
ODI 0 7 22 1586 6392 763 0 0
CDI 0 3 1 180 4515 10485 1963 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 57 4772 3017 0

Date: 2023-09-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 129274 17488 624 398 4 0 0 0
OW 0 680 576 1118 19 0 0 0
VODI 0 46 114 3170 565 0 0 0
ODI 0 4 3 1605 6782 1327 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 163 3741 11001 707 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 46 6171 1418 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 129267 16026 511 631 17 0 0 0
OW 7 1593 317 616 66 0 0 0
VODI 0 572 457 2752 480 0 0 0
ODI 0 26 28 2089 5434 825 0 0
CDI 0 1 4 370 5067 10264 647 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 93 7410 1478 0


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