Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2023-08-24

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-08-28

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 325 3285 349 122 1 0 0 0
OW 0 51 271 646 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 5 2382 413 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 232 7659 266 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 3208 10801 260 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1863 4709 23
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 325 3032 362 273 7 0 0 0
OW 0 243 160 582 28 0 0 0
VODI 0 61 99 1826 749 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 4 682 4251 372 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 37 5825 7597 1683 12
VCDI 0 0 0 0 434 4954 3286 11

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1263 695 25 53 0 0 0 0
OW 0 4 1 20 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 20 5 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 16 34 40 0 0
CDI 0 2 1 4 27 651 73 0
VCDI 0 1 0 0 28 36 131 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1261 677 24 62 0 0 0 0
OW 2 22 2 7 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 18 13 19 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 21 31 74 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 19 602 198 0
VCDI 0 3 1 0 30 33 6 0

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2451 3689 189 60 0 0 0 0
OW 0 38 181 496 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 1135 93 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 68 1097 71 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 76 338 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2451 3496 124 65 0 0 0 0
OW 0 214 177 299 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 17 69 1007 144 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 388 896 159 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 226 249 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2907 2552 106 49 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 12 23 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2907 2549 108 51 0 0 0 0
OW 0 3 10 26 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2507 4037 244 89 0 0 0 0
OW 0 4 65 224 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 60 7 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2507 3941 209 104 0 0 0 0
OW 0 100 100 234 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 35 16 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1346 1555 47 2 0 0 0 0
OW 0 10 75 89 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 256 34 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 35 443 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 220 905 87 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 7 205 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1346 1514 46 11 0 0 0 0
OW 0 40 56 104 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 16 195 146 0 0 0
ODI 0 2 4 60 269 86 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 282 834 292 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3743 2068 69 7 0 0 0 0
OW 0 10 61 67 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 144 27 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 129 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3743 2054 72 36 0 0 0 0
OW 0 23 52 62 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 6 126 108 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 38 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10249 1080 1 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10249 1080 1 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7706 2548 217 219 5 0 0 0
OW 0 3 21 183 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 312 70 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 25 278 39 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 24 33 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7706 2550 226 305 16 0 0 0
OW 0 1 12 265 19 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 116 135 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 43 138 39 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 82 33 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12988 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12988 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5257 416 17 28 5 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 30 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 35 2 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 7 5 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5257 416 17 37 6 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 24 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 26 1 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 13 6 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8159 422 4 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8159 423 4 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 20058 145 6 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 20058 145 6 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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