Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-08-17

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-08-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 110705 20940 1219 1275 57 0 0 0
OW 0 796 782 2546 199 1 0 0
VODI 0 44 265 5902 1586 103 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 1326 8351 2619 377 0
CDI 0 0 0 63 3542 13653 1578 1
VCDI 0 0 0 1 28 1201 6365 1522
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-08-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 111236 21481 988 1090 52 0 0 0
OW 0 1484 769 2657 211 11 0 0
VODI 0 402 297 5144 1485 127 1 0
ODI 0 1 1 1727 7943 2635 160 0
CDI 0 3 3 72 3524 12003 2001 16
VCDI 0 0 0 4 36 739 6002 2743
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-08-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 113396 22009 1530 1019 28 0 0 0
OW 0 303 589 2784 75 0 0 0
VODI 0 119 96 5972 1228 18 0 0
ODI 0 3 0 654 9964 501 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 2613 12218 1464 51
VCDI 0 0 0 4 34 492 6987 2885
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-08-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 113315 23097 1347 1060 7 0 0 0
OW 24 691 870 2479 90 0 0 0
VODI 0 243 214 5519 1013 0 0 0
ODI 0 11 6 1150 8518 975 1 0
CDI 0 0 1 34 3707 11814 860 9
VCDI 0 0 0 4 30 1193 6857 1909
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 113339 23076 1415 1306 11 0 0 0
OW 0 767 760 2211 101 0 0 0
VODI 0 189 257 5339 1047 0 0 0
ODI 0 10 5 1344 8376 942 1 0
CDI 0 0 1 42 3804 11722 904 5
VCDI 0 0 0 4 26 1318 6813 1913

Date: 2023-08-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 109434 27354 1451 1061 4 0 0 0
OW 41 1260 775 2066 115 0 0 0
VODI 4 310 359 5172 1061 9 0 0
ODI 0 7 5 1270 7729 1469 46 3
CDI 0 0 0 34 3708 10762 2051 98
VCDI 0 4 0 0 13 572 5129 3672
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 109454 27484 1475 1361 26 0 0 0
OW 22 1146 746 1892 119 0 0 0
VODI 3 294 367 4817 1138 8 0 0
ODI 0 7 2 1495 7528 1472 95 3
CDI 0 0 0 38 3804 10683 2095 92
VCDI 0 4 0 0 15 649 5036 3678

Date: 2023-08-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 112073 27329 1721 917 1 0 0 0
OW 17 226 804 2081 42 0 0 0
VODI 0 16 15 5503 766 4 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 351 8447 299 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 1738 12764 690 0
VCDI 0 4 0 0 9 992 7669 2564
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 111935 25945 1356 1119 10 0 0 0
OW 108 1299 725 1819 103 0 0 0
VODI 47 321 447 4351 1353 19 0 0
ODI 0 7 12 1498 6371 2238 339 0
CDI 0 0 0 70 3155 10588 3415 52
VCDI 0 4 0 0 11 1214 4605 2512

Date: 2023-08-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 117761 22776 1484 1301 4 0 0 0
OW 3 402 638 2119 35 0 0 0
VODI 0 19 82 4334 990 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 537 7319 487 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 2313 11937 2661 0
VCDI 0 3 1 0 12 1939 7074 806
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 117632 20960 1039 1241 12 0 0 0
OW 97 1573 668 1705 93 0 0 0
VODI 35 653 470 3872 1463 18 0 0
ODI 0 11 28 1423 5711 2524 537 0
CDI 0 0 0 54 3390 10520 5342 38
VCDI 0 3 1 0 4 1307 3856 768

Date: 2023-08-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 116435 24833 1446 1114 13 0 0 0
OW 3 601 845 2004 69 1 0 0
VODI 0 20 118 3561 1213 26 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 801 6534 646 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 3233 12718 1730 0
VCDI 0 4 0 0 1 3944 5079 39
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 116320 22861 1151 1217 50 0 0 0
OW 91 1931 674 1411 145 0 0 0
VODI 27 633 534 3384 1773 47 0 0
ODI 0 29 50 1338 5181 2792 439 0
CDI 0 4 3 144 3914 12771 3431 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1725 2939 39


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