Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2023-07-27

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-07-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8047 6565 370 515 95 18 0 0
OW 0 107 129 973 160 9 0 0
VODI 0 12 5 1677 1613 31 0 0
ODI 0 2 0 561 8462 408 2 0
CDI 0 2 0 23 3283 8915 373 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 83 2921 505 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-07-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8729 6273 397 500 100 26 0 0
OW 0 139 123 1130 234 8 0 0
VODI 0 9 19 2004 2262 35 0 0
ODI 0 3 0 630 6881 1044 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 40 1355 11899 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 40 1986 0 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-07-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8255 7255 483 628 107 17 0 0
OW 0 55 163 994 164 4 0 0
VODI 0 6 3 3070 1901 3 0 0
ODI 0 2 0 123 7556 726 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1686 11443 474 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 18 730 0 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-07-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9025 7121 482 585 119 6 0 0
OW 0 101 173 1460 225 0 0 0
VODI 0 16 2 3420 2031 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 130 6752 623 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1703 8656 1599 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 48 807 782 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9025 7090 488 710 160 6 0 0
OW 0 136 161 1152 204 0 0 0
VODI 0 12 8 3553 2013 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 180 6653 619 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1810 8817 1710 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 38 650 671 0

Date: 2023-07-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9231 7321 485 725 136 3 0 0
OW 0 174 258 2012 210 0 0 0
VODI 0 11 3 2636 2936 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 75 5410 1300 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1418 6797 2408 94
VCDI 0 0 0 0 50 1352 675 146
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9231 7315 494 836 178 3 0 0
OW 0 182 231 1488 191 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 21 3023 2835 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 101 5278 1277 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1632 7120 2469 114
VCDI 0 0 0 0 46 1052 614 126

Date: 2023-07-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9547 7925 524 635 56 3 0 0
OW 0 88 215 1088 95 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 3 3882 853 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 158 7264 110 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 673 5781 167 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 19 487 4233 2045
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9547 7680 502 1039 95 3 0 0
OW 0 293 201 2180 297 0 0 0
VODI 0 41 39 2474 2668 0 0 0
ODI 0 3 0 65 4283 1450 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 1528 4796 3263 1121
VCDI 0 0 0 0 89 132 1131 924

Date: 2023-08-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9823 8154 720 819 61 0 0 0
OW 0 66 168 1521 127 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 5 3399 1557 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 299 5074 667 18 0
CDI 0 0 0 21 1015 4337 1146 13
VCDI 0 0 0 7 57 153 3040 3593
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9823 7894 664 1328 125 0 0 0
OW 0 295 209 2431 483 0 0 0
VODI 0 33 20 2132 2261 22 4 0
ODI 0 1 1 143 3852 1311 52 0
CDI 0 0 0 31 1085 3747 3794 1913
VCDI 0 0 0 1 85 79 354 1693

Date: 2023-08-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10316 8140 575 908 59 0 0 0
OW 0 115 214 1688 147 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 5 3387 1653 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 81 4691 569 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 36 1137 3591 2066 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 26 661 4380 1403
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10316 7934 572 1734 190 0 0 0
OW 0 296 194 2529 419 0 0 0
VODI 0 29 28 1707 2222 48 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 86 3592 1195 360 0
CDI 0 0 0 44 1269 3524 4977 536
VCDI 0 0 0 1 21 59 1116 867


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