Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2023-07-20

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-07-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86238 8424 459 792 106 0 0 0
OW 0 59 88 934 187 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 27 947 809 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 166 627 172 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 50 706 3948 10 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 86 4026 230 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-07-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85484 9323 475 990 66 0 0 0
OW 0 35 104 1176 97 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 10 923 437 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 119 593 173 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 55 576 4096 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 7 3806 552 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-07-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83616 11245 586 1022 134 0 0 0
OW 0 15 87 694 82 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 1107 477 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 112 715 90 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 286 5108 178 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 12 2532 992 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-07-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84104 10992 550 1132 50 0 0 0
OW 0 26 116 936 35 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 9 710 488 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 103 527 107 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 24 390 5360 109 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 9 1820 1502 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84104 10981 557 1361 52 0 0 0
OW 0 37 110 700 48 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 8 704 479 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 116 513 107 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 24 396 5380 104 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 11 1800 1507 0

Date: 2023-07-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85811 9729 580 1007 8 0 0 0
OW 0 85 87 812 66 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 17 655 400 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 122 521 64 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 50 613 5330 65 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 1540 1534 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85811 9744 584 1185 19 0 0 0
OW 0 68 84 628 91 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 16 646 359 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 137 528 83 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 50 611 5284 50 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 1567 1549 0

Date: 2023-07-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86807 8898 659 910 5 0 0 0
OW 0 24 78 616 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 978 248 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 156 870 67 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 23 365 6883 173 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1068 253 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86807 8887 661 1275 22 0 0 0
OW 0 31 63 538 83 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 13 628 307 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 166 498 144 17 0
CDI 0 0 0 76 595 5605 152 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2270 257 0

Date: 2023-07-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86695 9272 615 1064 17 0 0 0
OW 0 9 43 517 49 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 661 426 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 101 755 115 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 35 305 6662 93 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1391 269 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86695 9260 614 1245 56 0 0 0
OW 0 13 37 491 137 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 7 432 368 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 125 480 199 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 85 511 5946 126 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2028 236 0

Date: 2023-07-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88077 8305 537 815 23 0 0 0
OW 0 19 48 557 57 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 4 572 437 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 78 695 173 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 28 258 4460 1716 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 531 1610 91
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88077 8306 532 991 80 0 0 0
OW 0 14 39 499 134 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 17 334 313 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 150 448 258 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 76 495 4269 1537 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 640 1789 93


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