Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2023-05-25

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-05-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 142 58 62 3 0 0 0
OW 0 83 60 250 80 0 0 0
VODI 0 73 72 387 325 67 3 0
ODI 0 7 22 269 418 285 41 7
CDI 0 17 8 159 445 820 897 27
VCDI 0 0 2 69 495 2970 19255 17988
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-05-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 159 35 52 1 0 0 0
OW 0 168 97 251 120 3 0 0
VODI 0 95 70 410 387 93 8 0
ODI 0 25 25 318 349 355 50 0
CDI 0 6 10 227 430 849 719 3
VCDI 0 0 0 75 554 3106 19984 16832
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-05-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 552 181 226 18 0 0 0
OW 0 48 67 445 78 0 1 0
VODI 0 21 20 429 398 35 6 0
ODI 0 13 6 169 520 256 14 0
CDI 0 0 3 156 427 912 366 78
VCDI 0 0 0 26 238 1897 13254 25006
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-05-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 516 227 345 12 0 0 0
OW 0 66 66 494 115 6 0 0
VODI 0 34 34 378 567 25 1 0
ODI 0 21 9 197 609 114 29 0
CDI 0 12 9 181 912 917 312 2
VCDI 0 10 10 41 896 3505 10609 24585
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 489 222 435 30 0 0 0
OW 0 96 69 409 127 7 0 0
VODI 0 26 35 375 520 20 2 0
ODI 0 24 9 187 549 99 30 0
CDI 0 14 9 189 938 918 303 5
VCDI 0 10 11 41 947 3523 10616 24582

Date: 2023-05-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 573 236 320 29 0 0 0
OW 0 116 82 494 180 4 0 0
VODI 0 82 38 354 579 63 11 0
ODI 0 43 37 160 506 206 43 0
CDI 0 38 16 260 578 1340 678 0
VCDI 0 66 11 236 950 2345 9479 25713
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 556 245 459 59 0 0 0
OW 0 119 69 388 191 2 0 0
VODI 0 82 40 342 487 60 10 0
ODI 0 46 31 135 497 158 48 0
CDI 0 43 23 242 601 1513 591 0
VCDI 0 72 12 258 987 2225 9562 25713

Date: 2023-05-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 651 266 392 50 0 0 0
OW 0 62 64 576 130 3 0 0
VODI 0 39 22 614 756 11 0 0
ODI 0 21 20 198 1101 164 6 0
CDI 0 18 18 261 2329 3208 229 0
VCDI 0 0 0 50 193 1621 14986 17807
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 487 223 489 144 0 0 0
OW 0 121 49 459 226 6 0 0
VODI 0 63 25 384 522 14 9 0
ODI 0 43 28 188 687 149 54 0
CDI 0 45 42 282 1663 1853 418 0
VCDI 0 32 23 289 1317 2985 14740 17807

Date: 2023-05-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 781 298 684 77 0 0 0
OW 0 50 32 541 488 52 0 0
VODI 0 21 13 315 667 350 11 0
ODI 0 18 9 140 413 581 245 0
CDI 0 51 15 124 665 2164 2440 1
VCDI 0 2 1 34 388 2041 14111 18043
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 594 219 561 197 1 0 0
OW 0 145 45 320 362 25 0 0
VODI 0 62 49 292 474 145 30 0
ODI 0 41 17 207 356 451 160 0
CDI 0 47 16 279 684 1941 2016 3
VCDI 0 34 22 179 625 2625 14601 18041

Date: 2023-06-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1007 314 912 244 24 0 0
OW 0 60 37 435 595 168 2 0
VODI 0 33 15 290 504 277 69 0
ODI 0 13 9 132 361 784 223 0
CDI 0 14 25 96 598 1902 2766 1
VCDI 0 0 0 164 304 2025 14654 16809
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 749 205 643 292 1 0 0
OW 0 161 66 339 320 22 1 0
VODI 0 112 65 270 472 196 42 0
ODI 0 62 21 231 338 532 214 0
CDI 0 37 22 284 580 2032 2735 7
VCDI 0 6 21 262 604 2397 14722 16803


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