Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-05-18

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-05-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70812 14962 627 937 171 39 0 0
OW 64 130 144 675 239 23 1 0
VODI 0 61 60 625 710 85 0 0
ODI 0 21 19 277 1045 532 35 0
CDI 0 47 31 250 1979 2751 1197 21
VCDI 0 10 33 249 969 8107 32658 46452
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-05-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70165 15262 716 1227 182 63 9 0
OW 59 124 121 714 312 30 2 0
VODI 0 53 47 558 981 137 4 0
ODI 0 19 6 274 1066 450 155 0
CDI 0 17 15 264 1991 2735 1277 6
VCDI 0 39 68 474 3670 10979 30223 42554
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-05-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70411 15696 765 1096 156 49 2 0
OW 58 71 139 937 192 16 7 0
VODI 0 74 50 805 975 75 10 0
ODI 0 15 20 381 1331 403 71 0
CDI 0 1 7 246 1922 3779 1069 26
VCDI 0 0 0 37 692 8140 36603 40721
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-05-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70707 15421 810 1315 226 53 0 0
OW 62 113 95 843 404 33 0 0
VODI 0 94 70 697 1050 134 11 0
ODI 0 28 31 366 1217 483 47 0
CDI 0 18 12 204 1774 4217 1241 5
VCDI 0 4 2 84 930 10017 30561 43669
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70707 15400 801 1413 271 57 0 0
OW 62 120 96 749 429 34 0 0
VODI 0 103 74 682 1008 117 11 0
ODI 0 30 34 356 1183 469 55 0
CDI 0 22 13 235 1713 3910 1129 6
VCDI 0 3 2 74 997 10350 30665 43668

Date: 2023-05-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70614 15537 831 1290 356 42 18 0
OW 62 175 128 903 543 49 7 0
VODI 0 115 97 789 1012 180 19 0
ODI 0 35 55 424 1197 539 119 0
CDI 0 14 19 304 2129 3607 1566 0
VCDI 0 5 1 121 1505 10364 40315 31962
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70614 15575 848 1452 499 49 22 0
OW 62 120 104 760 443 52 3 0
VODI 0 119 95 743 1009 171 20 0
ODI 0 46 53 442 1180 439 133 0
CDI 0 16 30 289 1967 3457 1456 0
VCDI 0 5 1 145 1644 10613 40410 31962

Date: 2023-05-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71310 15373 933 1295 322 41 0 0
OW 57 80 197 1274 383 27 0 0
VODI 0 13 27 1154 1177 78 2 0
ODI 0 3 0 312 2341 331 35 0
CDI 0 8 1 217 2470 5603 506 1
VCDI 0 0 0 4 990 8063 42121 30299
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71310 15071 810 1676 679 81 0 0
OW 57 211 136 753 491 72 9 0
VODI 0 132 127 669 1004 182 30 0
ODI 0 38 60 506 1111 596 106 0
CDI 0 19 24 460 2162 3050 1760 3
VCDI 0 6 1 192 2236 10162 40759 30297

Date: 2023-05-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71534 15586 1018 1760 460 9 0 0
OW 54 109 116 1390 375 22 0 0
VODI 0 65 47 955 1213 98 3 0
ODI 0 26 17 412 1947 356 39 0
CDI 0 12 19 438 2582 4792 1035 3
VCDI 0 8 3 162 849 7171 33225 39138
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71533 15091 793 1895 805 50 0 0
OW 55 306 114 720 575 51 6 0
VODI 0 232 150 820 943 226 40 0
ODI 0 92 93 529 1019 741 161 0
CDI 0 80 44 666 2191 2635 1729 81
VCDI 0 5 26 487 1893 8745 32366 39060

Date: 2023-05-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72052 15285 972 2168 447 14 0 0
OW 59 196 143 1172 479 52 0 0
VODI 0 138 56 825 1301 149 12 0
ODI 0 109 40 400 1726 632 91 0
CDI 0 84 62 549 2763 4598 1463 3
VCDI 0 33 40 312 1337 11567 33169 32550
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72051 14654 816 2012 870 95 1 0
OW 60 354 116 773 584 137 19 0
VODI 0 335 109 789 876 373 74 0
ODI 0 194 92 479 1119 769 289 0
CDI 0 211 85 714 2356 3056 1519 13
VCDI 0 97 95 659 2248 12582 32833 32540


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