Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2023-05-11

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-05-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 28 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 55 55 17 12 0
ODI 0 0 0 75 155 108 21 0
CDI 0 0 0 90 602 795 378 1
VCDI 0 0 0 82 533 2741 12424 27677
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-05-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 44 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 74 73 25 5 0
ODI 0 0 0 92 142 207 53 0
CDI 0 0 0 122 407 611 568 12
VCDI 0 0 11 175 917 2491 13381 26442
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-05-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 49 4 0 0 0
OW 0 0 3 83 23 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 136 123 5 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 92 254 112 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 191 553 947 250 15
VCDI 0 0 0 146 872 2913 14981 24103
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-05-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 59 12 0 0 0
OW 0 1 9 45 55 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 9 89 172 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 87 305 116 6 0
CDI 0 0 3 142 688 1113 370 8
VCDI 0 0 0 206 605 4249 12972 24539
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 62 15 0 0 0
OW 0 1 7 41 77 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 11 84 181 10 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 89 275 107 7 0
CDI 0 0 3 159 709 1139 433 23
VCDI 0 0 0 193 580 4226 12907 24524

Date: 2023-05-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 14 8 58 6 0 0 0
OW 0 16 12 96 44 0 0 0
VODI 0 24 28 114 216 15 0 0
ODI 0 0 13 129 342 161 15 0
CDI 0 0 6 155 660 905 455 7
VCDI 0 14 22 252 739 3624 12759 24957
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 16 7 72 10 0 0 0
OW 0 10 7 82 53 0 0 0
VODI 0 25 27 106 193 19 0 0
ODI 0 3 21 142 344 176 17 0
CDI 0 0 5 167 680 844 469 7
VCDI 0 14 22 235 727 3666 12743 24957

Date: 2023-05-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 65 36 79 1 0 0 0
OW 0 11 29 174 44 0 0 0
VODI 0 36 33 293 273 15 1 0
ODI 0 12 31 213 599 219 20 0
CDI 0 0 0 140 680 1811 391 21
VCDI 0 0 0 39 276 4692 17858 17774
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1 8 91 20 0 0 0
OW 0 18 12 105 44 6 0 0
VODI 0 30 28 145 222 109 5 0
ODI 0 25 18 145 286 327 67 0
CDI 0 17 23 207 555 947 800 16
VCDI 0 33 40 245 746 5348 17398 17779

Date: 2023-05-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 151 69 87 0 0 0 0
OW 0 64 33 238 33 2 0 0
VODI 0 72 64 302 265 37 3 0
ODI 0 11 18 291 366 204 22 0
CDI 0 0 0 173 609 1414 269 1
VCDI 0 0 0 61 431 3405 15888 21283
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 63 39 61 3 5 0 0
OW 0 53 21 129 25 9 0 0
VODI 0 68 31 191 202 83 19 0
ODI 0 46 31 205 306 291 71 0
CDI 0 31 16 330 558 1079 460 23
VCDI 0 37 46 236 610 3595 15632 21261

Date: 2023-05-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 142 58 62 3 0 0 0
OW 0 83 60 250 80 0 0 0
VODI 0 73 72 387 325 67 3 0
ODI 0 7 22 269 418 285 41 7
CDI 0 17 8 159 445 820 897 27
VCDI 0 0 2 69 495 2970 19255 17988
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 87 42 60 14 0 0 0
OW 0 66 33 141 59 0 0 0
VODI 0 63 54 265 257 87 29 0
ODI 0 45 31 274 388 283 139 5
CDI 0 32 24 222 451 753 904 72
VCDI 0 29 38 234 597 3019 19124 17945


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