Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2023-05-04

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-04-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67390 16311 737 1372 404 123 10 0
OW 59 128 55 452 448 79 0 0
VODI 0 71 31 260 611 212 35 0
ODI 0 24 27 125 444 374 76 0
CDI 0 12 4 119 393 1119 506 0
VCDI 0 0 0 105 662 3866 6861 5595
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-04-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68148 15805 707 1258 514 145 2 0
OW 116 142 55 398 390 132 4 0
VODI 26 62 50 238 464 282 56 0
ODI 10 16 21 107 372 446 85 0
CDI 8 12 2 95 446 1122 590 0
VCDI 0 0 0 75 700 3865 6378 5756
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-05-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68160 15893 739 1252 423 82 0 0
OW 100 16 59 452 303 48 0 0
VODI 3 10 5 273 540 116 3 0
ODI 0 1 0 84 651 232 26 0
CDI 0 0 0 35 724 2622 475 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 144 2929 6246 6453
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-05-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67918 15906 744 1538 432 69 0 0
OW 82 17 30 395 397 41 0 0
VODI 4 4 6 213 645 138 6 0
ODI 0 0 1 124 702 348 35 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 764 2642 362 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 241 3219 5787 6279
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67919 15903 746 1562 432 71 0 0
OW 80 21 26 381 409 42 0 0
VODI 5 3 8 202 642 132 7 0
ODI 0 0 1 114 647 369 41 0
CDI 0 0 0 22 771 2403 398 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 280 3440 5744 6279

Date: 2023-05-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68629 15339 786 1449 369 50 0 0
OW 77 17 39 480 384 37 0 0
VODI 0 2 5 251 758 140 6 0
ODI 0 0 0 84 707 337 57 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 771 2626 753 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 182 3103 5734 5923
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68630 15327 787 1514 377 54 0 0
OW 76 26 38 428 384 38 0 0
VODI 0 5 5 234 732 139 9 0
ODI 0 0 0 84 694 357 67 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 749 2559 792 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 235 3146 5682 5923

Date: 2023-05-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69369 15193 715 1064 146 18 0 0
OW 71 12 79 685 175 12 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 489 678 23 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 29 1328 91 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 888 3365 186 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 170 2425 6330 5553
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69369 15192 738 1337 257 27 0 0
OW 71 13 53 548 294 32 0 0
VODI 0 0 5 294 719 76 14 0
ODI 0 0 0 80 846 224 69 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 911 1940 734 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 358 3635 5702 5553

Date: 2023-05-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70022 15027 729 945 171 63 2 0
OW 69 36 87 650 166 19 1 0
VODI 0 0 3 462 619 42 3 0
ODI 0 0 0 134 974 180 23 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 1068 2356 542 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 121 2737 6367 5468
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70022 15026 702 1036 269 85 3 0
OW 69 36 99 536 218 46 4 0
VODI 0 1 18 415 512 48 44 0
ODI 0 0 0 162 768 235 91 0
CDI 0 0 0 56 1094 1532 808 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 258 3451 5988 5468

Date: 2023-05-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70801 14659 615 856 160 39 0 0
OW 64 90 131 594 175 23 1 0
VODI 0 14 30 550 519 66 0 0
ODI 0 1 3 176 757 270 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 38 1221 1547 554 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 143 3512 5531 5956
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70801 14668 625 971 248 59 1 0
OW 64 85 111 432 217 58 0 0
VODI 0 10 34 528 360 127 13 0
ODI 0 1 8 207 666 256 74 0
CDI 0 0 1 70 1241 1280 810 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 243 3677 5192 5956


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