Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-04-13

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-04-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66381 16374 710 1130 353 36 0 0
OW 52 141 107 481 305 86 0 0
VODI 0 36 54 382 499 169 6 0
ODI 0 4 2 196 453 259 34 0
CDI 0 1 0 121 531 586 245 37
VCDI 0 1 4 84 582 4778 20247 71581
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-04-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66438 16165 664 1330 480 39 0 0
OW 52 173 117 432 315 80 0 0
VODI 0 57 70 353 445 184 5 0
ODI 0 28 11 207 443 267 65 6
CDI 0 24 17 100 601 666 370 83
VCDI 0 7 10 65 527 5635 23116 67401
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-04-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66635 16199 714 1330 308 18 0 0
OW 52 136 71 517 322 49 0 0
VODI 0 59 46 289 653 136 5 0
ODI 0 33 23 155 578 337 20 0
CDI 0 23 5 69 540 1609 429 48
VCDI 0 18 7 54 409 5994 21160 67998
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-04-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67017 16141 694 1258 326 38 1 0
OW 52 164 95 476 347 80 7 0
VODI 0 29 65 362 549 173 21 0
ODI 0 12 13 207 490 282 40 0
CDI 0 17 7 131 541 1226 522 48
VCDI 0 0 4 27 382 5650 21737 67817
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67017 16183 707 1293 360 48 3 0
OW 52 119 88 463 317 74 5 0
VODI 0 33 58 354 546 181 21 0
ODI 0 12 13 196 473 288 39 0
CDI 0 16 7 125 549 1140 497 52
VCDI 0 0 5 30 390 5718 21763 67813

Date: 2023-04-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67198 16203 664 1271 352 38 1 0
OW 52 166 102 441 349 97 10 0
VODI 0 81 69 400 438 191 12 0
ODI 0 34 28 168 504 261 37 0
CDI 0 16 16 112 562 1184 534 28
VCDI 0 8 1 37 444 5815 16368 72756
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67198 16252 695 1311 396 69 2 0
OW 52 120 84 421 327 81 9 0
VODI 0 74 57 387 434 185 14 0
ODI 0 36 25 156 495 250 34 0
CDI 0 19 17 117 554 1311 532 30
VCDI 0 7 2 37 443 5690 16371 72754

Date: 2023-04-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67588 15878 724 1239 273 21 0 0
OW 52 156 123 643 295 32 6 0
VODI 0 74 39 435 663 57 10 0
ODI 0 9 14 124 732 279 29 0
CDI 0 3 2 54 644 1843 248 29
VCDI 0 19 0 19 698 5334 17024 71636
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67588 15853 724 1408 419 62 11 0
OW 52 141 79 458 290 46 10 0
VODI 0 83 60 327 532 101 21 0
ODI 0 38 25 145 535 286 44 0
CDI 0 21 13 109 640 1222 430 25
VCDI 0 3 1 67 889 5849 16801 71640

Date: 2023-04-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67913 15935 732 1377 240 23 11 0
OW 51 155 101 528 364 16 5 0
VODI 0 40 35 358 636 79 0 0
ODI 0 9 11 141 693 270 2 0
CDI 0 13 0 102 819 1347 351 26
VCDI 0 14 0 34 1010 5815 18761 69031
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67913 15853 694 1397 361 32 14 0
OW 51 151 88 381 346 34 2 0
VODI 0 98 62 332 537 134 0 0
ODI 0 40 23 188 573 339 18 1
CDI 0 20 12 171 722 1058 475 25
VCDI 0 4 0 71 1223 5953 18621 69031

Date: 2023-04-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67654 16036 690 1267 356 34 21 0
OW 60 243 81 461 417 32 4 0
VODI 0 116 50 301 605 145 3 0
ODI 0 21 24 141 618 394 40 0
CDI 0 13 2 149 715 1189 701 31
VCDI 0 8 0 39 1121 6399 24166 62701
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67654 15974 620 1240 526 65 24 0
OW 60 207 110 348 383 67 3 0
VODI 0 143 47 314 521 222 22 0
ODI 0 84 39 158 537 317 106 1
CDI 0 26 27 192 707 1052 610 90
VCDI 0 3 4 106 1158 6470 24170 62641


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