Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-04-06

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-03-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66198 16233 655 1104 438 49 0 0
OW 92 149 102 501 276 84 3 0
VODI 0 68 25 374 455 141 61 0
ODI 0 21 2 137 510 257 102 0
CDI 0 0 1 59 595 842 358 4
VCDI 0 0 0 1 343 3372 18081 75355
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-04-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65945 16689 606 1055 470 72 1 0
OW 55 208 138 447 305 92 18 0
VODI 0 50 66 351 449 171 86 0
ODI 0 12 17 184 434 279 100 0
CDI 0 0 1 85 453 802 379 33
VCDI 0 0 0 6 383 3581 19004 74021
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-04-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65910 16617 810 1116 311 30 0 0
OW 53 94 87 615 302 50 0 0
VODI 0 19 28 457 489 110 7 0
ODI 0 0 3 135 529 211 40 0
CDI 0 0 0 44 514 667 199 129
VCDI 0 0 0 24 407 3974 17632 75435
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-04-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66675 16272 631 1029 328 56 3 0
OW 53 171 128 465 269 67 14 0
VODI 0 45 73 385 446 122 30 0
ODI 0 3 12 191 412 223 61 0
CDI 0 0 3 149 509 375 301 19
VCDI 0 0 0 104 605 3916 18941 73962
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66675 16294 626 1018 335 60 3 0
OW 53 149 130 446 253 70 12 0
VODI 0 45 76 411 420 118 33 0
ODI 0 3 11 193 434 217 62 2
CDI 0 0 4 138 499 374 307 18
VCDI 0 0 0 117 628 3920 18933 73961

Date: 2023-04-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66476 16367 672 1171 361 33 0 0
OW 52 198 83 457 314 57 0 0
VODI 0 71 67 332 501 161 0 0
ODI 0 16 20 199 441 255 20 0
CDI 0 8 7 133 550 573 229 29
VCDI 0 4 8 82 581 5400 21240 69880
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66476 16365 683 1180 386 34 0 0
OW 52 184 63 430 267 63 0 0
VODI 0 87 71 329 498 174 2 0
ODI 0 18 24 202 439 244 24 0
CDI 0 5 8 135 513 520 213 24
VCDI 0 5 8 98 645 5444 21250 69885

Date: 2023-04-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66587 15991 700 1339 329 16 0 0
OW 52 207 94 521 314 46 0 0
VODI 0 57 60 374 571 132 1 0
ODI 0 24 17 177 645 325 27 4
CDI 0 25 4 69 539 1329 445 42
VCDI 0 19 7 41 350 5807 23165 66596
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66587 15936 664 1446 502 60 0 0
OW 52 213 86 351 296 115 1 0
VODI 0 101 79 284 462 209 33 0
ODI 0 33 28 223 380 335 78 14
CDI 0 28 13 144 574 1071 444 99
VCDI 0 12 12 73 534 5865 23082 66529

Date: 2023-04-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66556 16335 660 1345 356 40 0 0
OW 52 146 93 491 337 76 3 0
VODI 0 42 60 337 603 177 25 0
ODI 0 14 15 174 527 309 43 0
CDI 0 23 6 93 596 1400 539 33
VCDI 0 5 6 30 358 5419 22862 66862
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66556 16159 620 1329 474 111 0 0
OW 52 232 86 376 299 114 23 0
VODI 0 100 64 313 470 257 46 0
ODI 0 37 40 214 392 348 103 1
CDI 0 25 20 170 671 1117 626 42
VCDI 0 12 10 68 471 5474 22674 66852

Date: 2023-04-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66960 16381 693 1214 343 35 4 0
OW 52 151 116 434 383 64 13 0
VODI 0 53 66 362 512 168 26 0
ODI 0 21 22 165 502 279 47 0
CDI 0 13 13 121 512 1240 611 75
VCDI 0 4 3 38 389 5353 15802 73808
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66960 16170 645 1229 483 88 14 0
OW 52 243 92 320 330 109 27 0
VODI 0 123 77 277 451 267 49 0
ODI 0 58 58 229 342 308 78 1
CDI 0 26 27 183 514 872 449 163
VCDI 0 3 14 96 521 5495 15886 73719


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