Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-02-16

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-02-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73311 12699 103 450 71 0 0 0
OW 63 679 50 327 148 3 0 0
VODI 2 496 40 344 345 12 0 0
ODI 0 247 17 268 474 42 0 0
CDI 0 204 23 180 716 472 23 0
VCDI 0 937 68 715 2237 8596 20310 62376
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-02-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72124 13641 121 498 130 3 0 0
OW 59 632 40 324 165 7 0 0
VODI 0 478 50 285 389 24 0 0
ODI 0 267 21 240 423 67 4 0
CDI 0 202 16 187 597 302 85 0
VCDI 0 994 83 855 2040 7289 20409 63997
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-02-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71276 14482 125 507 169 2 0 0
OW 52 596 55 349 181 4 0 0
VODI 0 304 52 361 468 25 0 0
ODI 0 160 15 235 579 74 0 0
CDI 0 133 12 188 674 593 123 4
VCDI 0 280 42 433 1582 5800 24083 63030
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-02-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71687 13773 126 519 189 1 0 0
OW 51 607 46 335 152 4 0 0
VODI 0 381 57 364 430 5 0 0
ODI 0 184 17 292 516 58 0 0
CDI 0 142 26 220 740 547 74 53
VCDI 0 358 47 638 2208 6229 20221 65751
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71687 13823 131 552 192 1 0 0
OW 51 588 41 295 156 3 0 0
VODI 0 362 59 360 420 6 0 0
ODI 0 172 20 306 511 44 0 0
CDI 0 140 20 187 755 568 64 56
VCDI 0 360 48 668 2201 6222 20231 65748

Date: 2023-02-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71808 13499 117 475 166 4 0 0
OW 52 647 39 357 122 8 0 0
VODI 0 417 63 453 352 17 0 0
ODI 0 222 31 338 559 55 0 0
CDI 0 148 25 267 674 459 18 2
VCDI 0 541 55 771 2562 6539 20188 64998
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71789 13466 119 526 198 5 0 0
OW 71 673 35 308 120 9 0 0
VODI 0 412 60 437 342 15 0 0
ODI 0 214 37 341 543 60 0 0
CDI 0 141 22 275 717 514 27 0
VCDI 0 568 57 774 2515 6479 20179 65000

Date: 2023-02-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70896 14125 137 447 183 10 0 0
OW 61 447 70 485 164 10 0 0
VODI 0 303 47 656 456 23 0 0
ODI 0 89 32 389 950 57 0 0
CDI 0 94 9 142 1185 562 50 12
VCDI 0 130 20 302 1458 7198 24682 61167
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70857 13769 139 526 262 16 0 0
OW 100 536 49 340 211 18 0 0
VODI 0 327 44 465 446 33 0 0
ODI 0 202 21 359 517 103 1 0
CDI 0 106 28 267 935 536 109 15
VCDI 0 248 34 464 2025 7154 24622 61164

Date: 2023-02-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70546 14323 166 476 102 14 0 0
OW 55 459 66 449 157 6 0 0
VODI 0 250 35 544 470 12 0 0
ODI 0 119 22 281 737 90 19 0
CDI 0 94 14 147 1007 494 80 9
VCDI 0 78 13 192 1821 6674 23217 63810
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70487 13987 158 551 264 17 0 0
OW 95 532 52 362 169 16 0 0
VODI 19 305 45 414 411 66 2 0
ODI 0 162 18 284 577 222 24 0
CDI 0 153 19 194 903 658 134 2
VCDI 0 184 24 284 1970 6311 23156 63817

Date: 2023-02-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70829 14087 103 381 149 10 0 0
OW 52 594 65 292 160 2 0 0
VODI 0 371 58 419 293 27 26 0
ODI 0 146 33 389 390 81 18 0
CDI 0 107 19 271 729 622 134 14
VCDI 0 198 22 293 2272 8214 29042 56136
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70717 13589 82 387 287 11 0 0
OW 124 711 60 258 207 17 0 0
VODI 40 465 61 340 321 58 23 0
ODI 0 244 26 316 343 162 20 0
CDI 0 183 24 257 535 668 160 31
VCDI 0 311 47 487 2300 8040 29017 56119


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