Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-01-26

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-01-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75078 12577 90 215 101 10 0 0
OW 79 826 51 255 71 17 0 0
VODI 0 591 55 412 261 23 0 0
ODI 0 264 25 307 327 62 3 0
CDI 0 187 11 317 394 289 116 7
VCDI 0 444 34 514 1853 5464 22027 63691
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-01-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76242 11029 72 314 61 0 0 0
OW 79 872 51 327 159 4 0 0
VODI 0 693 44 443 422 25 0 0
ODI 0 292 28 359 324 94 0 0
CDI 0 237 23 320 437 378 53 9
VCDI 0 513 33 446 1879 6267 23678 60841
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-01-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75519 12357 116 364 64 0 0 0
OW 73 527 40 398 126 0 0 0
VODI 0 370 39 608 546 22 0 0
ODI 0 190 18 299 628 75 0 0
CDI 0 162 18 285 719 538 77 4
VCDI 0 279 25 421 1754 8119 20927 61341
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-01-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74839 12466 121 482 82 0 0 0
OW 73 448 47 372 194 1 0 0
VODI 0 435 38 489 533 26 0 0
ODI 0 196 22 326 652 106 0 0
CDI 0 117 14 268 741 515 64 9
VCDI 0 264 29 368 1963 7833 21729 61186
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74838 12483 118 509 95 0 0 0
OW 74 396 50 335 173 2 0 0
VODI 0 405 33 468 507 29 0 0
ODI 0 229 27 332 658 109 0 0
CDI 0 151 15 287 706 507 70 14
VCDI 0 262 28 374 2026 7834 21723 61181

Date: 2023-01-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74495 12419 130 534 131 3 0 0
OW 74 399 43 324 246 14 0 0
VODI 0 287 39 340 472 52 0 0
ODI 0 191 13 259 642 152 14 0
CDI 0 153 12 156 748 455 90 6
VCDI 0 236 36 399 1596 7965 25593 58330
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74495 12428 138 536 109 4 0 0
OW 74 361 28 339 243 13 0 0
VODI 0 289 39 281 471 52 0 0
ODI 0 169 21 275 615 139 11 0
CDI 0 157 10 194 724 468 87 7
VCDI 0 281 37 387 1673 7965 25599 58329

Date: 2023-01-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74038 13007 111 383 77 0 0 0
OW 74 484 52 375 130 3 0 0
VODI 0 339 40 500 359 16 0 0
ODI 0 217 20 337 716 141 0 0
CDI 0 119 17 244 878 658 46 2
VCDI 0 62 8 146 1180 5802 24610 61857
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74036 12706 113 415 130 6 0 0
OW 76 461 32 272 143 10 0 0
VODI 0 322 37 340 309 57 0 0
ODI 0 174 17 251 450 244 2 0
CDI 0 161 8 217 572 482 59 15
VCDI 0 404 41 490 1736 5821 24595 61844

Date: 2023-02-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73020 13495 127 443 89 1 0 0
OW 76 406 62 353 184 5 0 0
VODI 0 238 33 406 382 33 3 0
ODI 0 145 9 257 470 131 11 0
CDI 0 189 15 140 646 646 84 6
VCDI 0 165 28 289 1533 5448 25816 61664
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73022 13170 133 511 176 1 0 0
OW 74 487 33 263 201 13 0 0
VODI 0 307 37 272 314 62 0 0
ODI 0 165 19 249 390 260 9 0
CDI 0 145 10 201 472 530 71 9
VCDI 0 364 42 392 1751 5398 25834 61661

Date: 2023-02-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71837 14291 141 468 161 8 0 0
OW 60 467 54 264 271 14 0 0
VODI 0 287 33 329 399 42 0 0
ODI 0 138 25 193 430 108 0 0
CDI 0 119 13 158 551 488 83 9
VCDI 0 117 18 303 1284 5258 22933 65694
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71817 14074 148 536 340 39 0 0
OW 80 500 38 205 214 50 0 0
VODI 0 351 28 200 416 66 0 0
ODI 0 198 30 222 393 141 2 0
CDI 0 119 20 183 430 490 98 0
VCDI 0 177 20 369 1303 5132 22916 65703


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