Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2022-11-24

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-11-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4310 6109 47 181 17 10 0 0
OW 2 458 45 277 106 14 0 0
VODI 0 218 25 289 276 3 0 0
ODI 0 81 16 134 422 18 2 0
CDI 0 12 7 120 534 134 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 64 1076 5677 8667 16512
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-11-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2622 6669 73 328 59 0 0 0
OW 19 507 47 341 268 21 9 0
VODI 0 128 25 284 414 145 3 0
ODI 0 41 5 103 370 219 3 0
CDI 0 27 1 28 362 486 5 1
VCDI 0 19 4 56 696 6724 8638 16116
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-11-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2149 6296 79 372 33 0 0 0
OW 68 529 54 342 58 0 0 0
VODI 13 102 25 334 403 0 0 0
ODI 0 20 0 72 623 160 5 6
CDI 0 6 2 33 498 570 3 13
VCDI 0 0 0 56 662 6454 8015 17811
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-11-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2646 4904 59 512 131 0 0 0
OW 63 797 55 320 105 0 0 0
VODI 12 181 33 361 318 11 0 0
ODI 1 14 3 126 414 81 0 0
CDI 0 3 1 41 459 214 44 10
VCDI 0 0 0 11 525 4638 9517 19256
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2639 5174 71 552 116 0 0 0
OW 61 545 50 367 138 1 0 0
VODI 22 163 23 307 341 9 0 0
ODI 0 14 5 93 438 48 0 0
CDI 0 3 2 41 413 280 21 3
VCDI 0 0 0 11 506 4606 9540 19263

Date: 2022-11-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3183 3567 38 383 92 0 0 0
OW 63 1167 57 382 167 0 0 0
VODI 21 303 33 241 341 40 0 0
ODI 0 45 6 134 349 130 0 0
CDI 0 9 1 50 310 308 19 1
VCDI 0 1 0 37 401 3380 10563 20044
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3185 3929 55 477 106 0 0 0
OW 52 796 53 302 194 1 0 0
VODI 30 304 18 252 352 61 0 0
ODI 0 53 9 113 344 115 0 0
CDI 0 10 0 50 249 334 8 1
VCDI 0 0 0 33 415 3347 10574 20044

Date: 2022-11-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2629 3770 51 166 26 2 0 0
OW 69 531 57 491 192 29 0 0
VODI 6 144 20 456 555 43 0 0
ODI 0 24 5 39 605 261 0 0
CDI 0 6 1 13 104 790 74 0
VCDI 0 0 0 12 120 2676 10810 21089
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2550 3524 70 453 127 23 0 0
OW 90 638 43 369 372 30 0 0
VODI 64 266 12 227 563 128 0 0
ODI 0 37 6 74 255 322 11 0
CDI 0 8 2 23 111 507 100 0
VCDI 0 2 1 31 174 2791 10773 21089

Date: 2022-11-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2413 3207 24 99 46 2 0 0
OW 68 964 86 380 135 34 0 0
VODI 11 364 34 467 374 107 6 0
ODI 0 46 17 156 454 130 0 0
CDI 0 8 4 30 351 579 8 0
VCDI 0 1 3 12 215 3292 6783 24956
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2419 2921 51 251 91 9 0 0
OW 54 1032 55 295 155 71 4 0
VODI 17 535 44 388 401 131 2 0
ODI 2 91 9 165 390 199 1 0
CDI 0 7 5 23 304 384 27 0
VCDI 0 4 4 22 234 3350 6763 24956

Date: 2022-12-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1444 3527 40 170 70 0 0 0
OW 59 845 62 392 260 6 0 0
VODI 1 425 42 420 417 177 0 0
ODI 0 127 21 172 380 206 1 0
CDI 0 19 4 83 374 515 57 0
VCDI 0 2 6 53 297 3144 6170 25878
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1375 2977 41 183 137 7 0 0
OW 70 987 47 310 228 41 0 0
VODI 52 590 41 437 475 281 0 0
ODI 7 263 28 166 285 299 1 0
CDI 0 120 12 133 193 344 24 0
VCDI 0 8 6 61 480 3076 6203 25878


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