Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-11-03

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-10-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 100363 17476 178 833 653 276 0 0
OW 130 1192 131 1236 606 474 1 0
VODI 0 209 31 726 1740 919 0 0
ODI 0 41 7 173 1214 1313 22 0
CDI 0 10 6 103 788 2041 353 0
VCDI 0 0 0 48 471 4722 18261 30301
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-10-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 100703 15328 131 653 442 310 0 0
OW 110 1151 99 999 1024 519 70 0
VODI 1 297 36 593 1373 935 121 0
ODI 0 82 6 252 823 1736 240 0
CDI 0 75 8 92 639 1607 763 35
VCDI 0 76 11 135 692 4362 18273 32246
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-11-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97652 18127 146 889 232 14 0 0
OW 24 786 70 577 254 112 0 0
VODI 0 408 51 687 699 311 12 0
ODI 0 74 12 287 1277 826 47 1
CDI 0 49 4 63 1064 3376 466 79
VCDI 0 20 4 82 514 6171 19503 32078
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-11-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97210 16827 119 799 321 9 0 0
OW 56 827 55 753 741 114 0 0
VODI 4 305 57 392 855 519 0 0
ODI 0 96 15 336 744 903 74 3
CDI 0 54 9 159 1286 1721 363 24
VCDI 0 77 8 155 1046 7738 19640 32634
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97183 16951 135 976 526 32 0 0
OW 86 704 45 575 508 146 0 0
VODI 1 289 38 377 886 468 0 0
ODI 0 116 28 308 781 881 84 2
CDI 0 56 9 197 1206 1777 376 24
VCDI 0 70 8 161 1086 7700 19617 32635

Date: 2022-11-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96242 15477 110 513 251 23 0 0
OW 58 1561 86 712 805 164 0 0
VODI 46 410 45 475 794 768 16 0
ODI 0 79 7 257 430 902 149 0
CDI 0 44 7 233 639 1411 425 15
VCDI 0 60 7 63 771 8691 20600 33702
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96254 15856 135 658 494 49 0 0
OW 48 1071 63 572 689 257 0 0
VODI 44 504 41 474 659 852 20 0
ODI 0 95 10 241 406 795 61 0
CDI 0 47 6 216 630 1343 442 8
VCDI 0 58 7 92 812 8663 20667 33709

Date: 2022-11-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95263 16622 145 579 170 2 0 0
OW 47 472 60 551 237 8 0 0
VODI 8 119 44 592 688 41 0 0
ODI 0 43 5 248 1362 724 0 0
CDI 0 32 6 35 823 2965 371 0
VCDI 0 33 9 76 400 8475 25287 30506
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95221 15564 128 697 334 8 0 0
OW 45 585 47 405 693 247 0 0
VODI 18 780 46 333 843 1298 77 0
ODI 34 244 21 298 402 824 229 0
CDI 0 67 13 171 588 1443 331 0
VCDI 0 81 14 177 820 8395 25021 30506

Date: 2022-11-09:

Best estimate Forecast
...observations not yet available ...observations not yet available

Date: 2022-11-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91950 17160 138 646 215 26 0 0
OW 27 843 80 662 211 20 0 0
VODI 0 410 27 569 590 76 0 0
ODI 0 172 17 266 672 203 13 0
CDI 1 35 8 160 846 869 153 4
VCDI 0 2 1 63 957 8480 23635 36841
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91948 16687 140 703 254 32 0 0
OW 29 793 51 469 315 47 0 0
VODI 0 459 35 541 602 343 55 0
ODI 0 156 26 299 671 684 280 0
CDI 1 151 13 172 548 1251 372 31
VCDI 0 376 6 182 1101 7317 23094 36814


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