Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2022-09-22

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-09-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18664 8058 66 236 39 1 0 0
OW 0 767 48 215 76 0 0 0
VODI 0 174 49 777 334 24 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 285 1122 265 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 465 2345 359 0
VCDI 0 2 1 8 21 2776 7248 1439
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-09-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18958 7392 60 215 40 2 0 0
OW 5 930 38 224 144 11 0 0
VODI 0 310 61 688 364 108 0 0
ODI 0 3 7 343 569 434 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 403 1703 557 0
VCDI 0 2 1 6 14 1973 8422 1874
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-09-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18025 8564 90 334 95 1 0 0
OW 0 431 53 366 118 0 0 0
VODI 0 37 24 654 526 44 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 81 851 114 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 231 1717 72 0
VCDI 0 0 1 5 50 1732 9660 1989
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-09-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18207 7825 81 329 154 3 0 0
OW 0 734 41 379 105 0 0 0
VODI 0 68 23 744 463 23 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 128 744 126 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 326 1361 145 0
VCDI 0 0 1 5 45 1260 8813 3733
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18207 8020 80 353 176 3 0 0
OW 0 560 46 293 78 0 0 0
VODI 0 47 19 770 349 25 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 164 795 127 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 370 1180 158 0
VCDI 0 0 1 5 69 1438 8800 3733

Date: 2022-09-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17994 6915 84 541 116 2 0 0
OW 0 940 31 314 318 3 0 0
VODI 0 140 32 547 494 78 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 37 849 213 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 310 1072 43 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 62 3414 8697 2615
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17994 7126 92 589 206 0 0 0
OW 0 693 25 289 202 4 0 0
VODI 0 176 30 478 511 52 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 83 780 202 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 388 882 56 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 62 3642 8684 2615

Date: 2022-09-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17459 7356 102 442 75 0 0 0
OW 0 171 35 446 144 2 0 0
VODI 0 72 18 403 598 12 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 16 1095 175 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 186 1471 53 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 16 3512 10922 1080
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17459 6569 88 542 220 20 0 0
OW 0 696 31 345 351 46 0 0
VODI 0 325 32 358 485 126 0 0
ODI 0 10 4 62 781 305 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 260 738 69 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 17 3937 10900 1080

Date: 2022-09-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16269 7721 111 364 203 142 0 0
OW 0 326 34 295 212 168 0 0
VODI 0 30 11 186 698 219 0 0
ODI 0 2 0 12 563 514 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 160 896 389 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 14 3696 10032 2594
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16269 6835 89 348 270 271 0 0
OW 0 652 17 153 465 200 6 0
VODI 0 572 45 262 373 310 49 0
ODI 0 20 5 94 567 379 114 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 161 672 350 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 14 3803 9905 2594

Date: 2022-09-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16156 7600 97 330 204 29 0 0
OW 0 529 43 288 265 49 0 0
VODI 0 93 22 325 551 138 0 0
ODI 0 7 0 75 651 248 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 444 867 66 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 58 4114 11677 940
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16146 6565 87 313 484 126 0 0
OW 10 822 23 126 261 108 7 0
VODI 0 681 29 278 396 391 22 0
ODI 0 161 23 271 426 238 87 0
CDI 0 0 0 30 467 475 241 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 139 4107 11386 940


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