Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-09-08

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-09-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 123298 18194 89 271 31 1 0 0
OW 3 1885 146 574 25 0 0 0
VODI 0 1002 168 2931 726 13 0 0
ODI 0 34 10 1393 7454 1991 46 0
CDI 0 1 2 180 3631 7049 1927 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 82 6111 5924 1856
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-09-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 123106 18112 99 399 36 0 0 0
OW 1 2169 124 577 40 2 0 0
VODI 0 1251 175 2555 559 39 0 0
ODI 0 45 24 1889 7034 1004 4 0
CDI 0 1 2 334 4894 7476 452 18
VCDI 0 0 0 2 424 6773 6430 998
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-09-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 124739 18880 143 586 58 0 0 0
OW 0 1207 193 831 54 0 0 0
VODI 0 260 88 3192 644 8 0 0
ODI 0 1 1 1077 7757 651 3 0
CDI 0 1 2 84 3488 8672 774 12
VCDI 0 0 0 1 96 6405 5937 1203
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-09-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 123773 19480 154 688 72 2 0 0
OW 0 1566 170 817 88 0 0 0
VODI 0 444 119 2558 762 40 0 0
ODI 0 1 4 1078 5858 1271 68 0
CDI 0 2 1 174 4134 8633 1209 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 197 7138 5390 1157
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 123773 19733 179 779 69 2 0 0
OW 0 1198 132 751 92 0 0 0
VODI 0 554 131 2314 716 42 0 0
ODI 0 6 5 1301 5719 1392 72 0
CDI 0 2 1 170 4342 8273 1144 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 173 7375 5451 1157

Date: 2022-09-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 123717 19655 130 419 63 5 0 0
OW 0 2006 132 773 24 0 0 0
VODI 0 600 138 2193 852 12 0 0
ODI 0 13 15 1006 4584 1448 20 0
CDI 0 1 1 155 3661 9670 1157 0
VCDI 0 0 1 12 170 7925 5290 1200
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 123717 19985 149 535 52 5 0 0
OW 0 1541 102 715 48 0 0 0
VODI 0 734 154 1982 801 21 0 0
ODI 0 14 10 1144 4348 1759 24 0
CDI 0 1 2 166 3934 9016 1114 0
VCDI 0 0 0 16 171 8259 5329 1200

Date: 2022-09-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 124785 20259 131 353 32 3 0 0
OW 0 1069 217 838 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 115 51 2552 461 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 345 6348 217 0 0
CDI 0 1 2 50 1802 12396 676 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 80 6475 7526 249
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 124785 18664 126 493 43 3 0 0
OW 0 1775 105 566 71 0 0 0
VODI 0 962 150 1855 752 7 0 0
ODI 0 42 18 1102 3693 1091 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 115 4014 9351 695 0
VCDI 0 1 2 12 160 8639 7507 249

Date: 2022-09-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 124403 20594 121 366 52 2 0 0
OW 0 1160 181 712 110 0 0 0
VODI 0 139 83 1978 706 32 0 0
ODI 0 2 4 563 4161 907 0 0
CDI 0 1 1 13 1711 11565 1329 0
VCDI 0 1 1 6 42 8088 7567 447
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 124403 18715 124 462 50 2 0 0
OW 0 1897 84 523 95 0 0 0
VODI 0 1181 137 1518 892 15 0 0
ODI 0 96 43 1028 2705 1135 0 0
CDI 0 6 1 99 2978 9159 824 0
VCDI 0 2 2 8 62 10283 8072 447

Date: 2022-09-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 125141 19367 110 370 40 1 0 0
OW 0 1658 141 529 112 0 0 0
VODI 0 423 133 1775 630 24 0 0
ODI 0 11 10 800 3056 636 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 2058 11220 831 0
VCDI 0 2 1 8 38 6694 9775 1439
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 125021 17264 127 404 28 1 0 0
OW 120 2323 59 349 87 0 0 0
VODI 0 1688 142 1332 644 13 0 0
ODI 0 179 66 1231 2039 920 0 0
CDI 0 5 0 173 2870 8583 425 0
VCDI 0 2 1 8 266 9058 10181 1439


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