Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-08-25

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-08-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 118755 15791 119 414 37 0 0 0
OW 0 1884 122 768 58 1 0 0
VODI 0 891 153 3764 1391 17 0 0
ODI 0 38 17 1492 7264 3268 24 0
CDI 0 0 1 57 3755 10256 4488 120
VCDI 0 1 1 0 50 1129 5982 4940
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-08-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 118055 16627 117 420 59 0 0 0
OW 0 2172 147 877 67 1 0 0
VODI 0 1046 167 3631 1561 77 0 0
ODI 0 78 18 1420 6946 3010 40 0
CDI 0 0 1 72 3275 10856 4694 0
VCDI 0 3 1 12 59 868 6582 4089
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-08-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 118509 19029 108 389 21 0 0 0
OW 3 1560 199 759 33 0 0 0
VODI 0 624 126 4120 1091 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 521 7712 936 4 0
CDI 0 0 2 13 3299 12561 1623 0
VCDI 0 2 1 2 36 1032 8208 4521
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-08-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 118657 19459 82 328 35 0 0 0
OW 0 1901 180 614 56 0 0 0
VODI 0 866 179 3950 997 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 989 7320 318 3 0
CDI 0 1 0 35 6485 9816 761 0
VCDI 0 3 0 6 43 4390 6627 2940
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 118657 19733 102 378 47 0 0 0
OW 0 1746 183 692 57 1 0 0
VODI 0 747 154 3745 1062 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 1061 7034 391 7 0
CDI 0 3 0 40 6696 9749 765 0
VCDI 0 1 0 6 40 4386 6619 2940

Date: 2022-08-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 120014 18315 76 267 12 0 0 0
OW 0 2383 144 545 24 0 0 0
VODI 0 997 211 3963 633 7 0 0
ODI 0 11 5 1502 6750 335 16 0
CDI 0 2 0 51 7330 8445 737 3
VCDI 0 2 0 4 25 3365 8225 2649
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 120014 18823 88 324 8 0 0 0
OW 0 1943 144 599 20 0 0 0
VODI 0 932 200 3877 697 11 0 0
ODI 0 8 4 1462 6276 392 19 0
CDI 0 4 0 66 7754 8359 756 2
VCDI 0 0 0 4 19 3390 8203 2650

Date: 2022-08-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 121098 19476 88 278 27 0 0 0
OW 0 1708 216 752 21 0 0 0
VODI 0 408 131 4125 569 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 498 11025 509 17 0
CDI 0 2 1 17 2652 9227 461 10
VCDI 0 0 0 0 12 5492 5791 2432
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 121088 18009 95 357 29 0 0 0
OW 10 2042 83 516 35 2 0 0
VODI 0 1505 240 2982 825 99 3 0
ODI 0 36 17 1683 5810 532 69 0
CDI 0 2 1 131 7589 8469 570 27
VCDI 0 0 0 1 18 6131 5627 2415

Date: 2022-08-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 121704 19694 95 234 26 0 0 0
OW 9 1682 159 631 24 0 0 0
VODI 1 652 166 3338 789 10 0 0
ODI 0 9 5 1001 9035 1555 7 0
CDI 0 1 2 82 2708 9129 416 4
VCDI 0 0 0 0 53 6684 5495 1648
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 121670 17791 84 284 16 0 0 0
OW 41 2115 76 378 32 9 0 0
VODI 3 1938 214 2434 931 73 5 0
ODI 0 193 51 1808 5133 747 61 0
CDI 0 1 2 379 6439 9265 473 8
VCDI 0 0 0 3 84 7284 5379 1644

Date: 2022-09-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 123298 18194 89 271 31 1 0 0
OW 3 1885 146 574 25 0 0 0
VODI 0 1002 168 2931 726 13 0 0
ODI 0 34 10 1393 7454 1991 46 0
CDI 0 1 2 180 3631 7049 1927 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 82 6111 5924 1856
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 123251 16296 75 236 27 1 0 0
OW 50 2008 74 452 37 14 0 0
VODI 0 2374 188 2226 737 83 0 0
ODI 0 431 73 1856 4101 1051 29 0
CDI 0 7 5 579 6843 7341 1729 25
VCDI 0 0 0 0 204 6675 6139 1831


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