Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2022-08-18

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-08-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12787 6490 80 280 42 0 0 0
OW 8 807 64 433 51 0 0 0
VODI 0 343 58 1425 461 0 0 0
ODI 0 46 9 1179 3571 47 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 73 2294 5536 1091 26
VCDI 0 2 1 2 44 1267 5469 1880
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-08-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13468 5921 69 352 46 0 0 0
OW 4 742 40 441 132 0 0 0
VODI 0 473 59 1348 543 5 0 0
ODI 0 62 12 1386 2861 224 17 0
CDI 0 0 1 125 2378 5928 1089 19
VCDI 0 0 0 4 74 1125 4722 2196
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-08-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12155 7462 65 329 23 0 0 0
OW 0 956 55 362 54 0 0 0
VODI 0 254 62 2264 442 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 599 4066 341 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 1343 4312 2265 32
VCDI 0 1 2 1 17 680 5846 1873
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-08-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13745 6058 60 274 32 0 0 0
OW 0 1044 52 367 55 0 0 0
VODI 0 416 79 2032 647 0 0 0
ODI 0 9 3 877 3205 573 0 0
CDI 0 0 2 4 1717 4101 2105 106
VCDI 0 1 0 0 20 490 4906 2886
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13745 6217 62 309 48 0 0 0
OW 0 912 56 347 46 0 0 0
VODI 0 385 73 2019 681 0 0 0
ODI 0 13 3 875 2998 534 0 0
CDI 0 0 2 4 1876 4132 2012 82
VCDI 0 1 0 0 27 498 4999 2910

Date: 2022-08-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13677 6187 75 270 19 0 0 0
OW 0 1230 58 373 22 0 0 0
VODI 0 639 94 2147 331 0 0 0
ODI 0 33 7 825 2665 700 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 34 1730 4179 2364 2
VCDI 0 2 1 5 98 487 3887 3725
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13677 6360 87 343 19 0 0 0
OW 0 1055 46 344 23 0 0 0
VODI 0 629 89 2086 417 0 0 0
ODI 0 43 12 841 2514 622 0 0
CDI 0 2 0 34 1797 4242 2229 1
VCDI 0 2 1 6 95 502 4022 3726

Date: 2022-08-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13559 7742 65 226 32 0 0 0
OW 0 909 116 425 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 189 50 2614 255 0 0 0
ODI 0 2 0 158 2951 196 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 995 4867 622 0
VCDI 0 2 2 3 21 429 5432 3985
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13548 6774 67 295 32 0 0 0
OW 11 1191 62 429 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 787 91 1881 251 0 0 0
ODI 0 76 11 814 2123 683 0 0
CDI 0 14 0 12 1808 4499 1957 11
VCDI 0 2 2 11 27 310 4097 3974

Date: 2022-08-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13909 8263 61 182 10 0 0 0
OW 0 936 66 329 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 579 81 1829 353 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 259 2191 313 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 14 1327 3935 1269 0
VCDI 0 2 1 5 53 1021 4979 3890
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13898 7071 57 221 10 0 0 0
OW 11 1327 43 278 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 1267 86 1209 210 0 0 0
ODI 0 103 21 883 1827 556 16 0
CDI 0 10 2 19 1824 4015 2083 232
VCDI 0 2 1 8 53 706 4149 3658

Date: 2022-08-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15151 7491 51 128 4 0 0 0
OW 0 1258 56 263 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 522 74 1786 174 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 464 2083 116 0 0
CDI 0 2 0 11 1825 3944 510 0
VCDI 0 2 0 5 25 1240 5815 2863
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15118 6432 50 172 4 0 0 0
OW 33 1606 36 206 20 0 0 0
VODI 0 1087 75 1048 132 0 0 0
ODI 0 142 20 1141 1596 300 0 2
CDI 0 6 0 84 2337 3553 716 440
VCDI 0 3 0 6 24 1447 5609 2421


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