Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2022-08-04

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-07-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7380 8883 141 544 66 0 0 0
OW 0 318 75 586 75 0 0 0
VODI 0 44 20 920 572 1 0 0
ODI 0 2 1 532 2310 635 6 0
CDI 0 1 0 169 3442 4879 2028 203
VCDI 0 0 0 18 41 2049 5643 4282
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-07-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7653 8887 133 541 58 0 0 0
OW 0 472 72 491 67 0 0 0
VODI 0 78 26 1027 597 3 0 0
ODI 0 12 3 550 2161 540 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 150 2976 5485 1370 0
VCDI 0 0 0 80 85 2289 6394 3665
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-08-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8592 8778 123 401 31 0 0 0
OW 0 447 76 466 39 0 0 0
VODI 0 286 52 1225 561 4 0 0
ODI 0 17 3 353 2963 218 0 0
CDI 0 30 8 69 2530 6376 177 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 20 2056 6574 3386
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-08-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10524 7461 71 259 22 0 0 0
OW 0 564 76 544 69 0 0 0
VODI 0 342 44 1178 521 0 0 0
ODI 0 48 7 449 2692 64 0 0
CDI 0 31 9 82 3135 6312 179 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 29 2170 6329 2651
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10524 7489 79 328 23 0 0 0
OW 0 478 61 462 73 0 0 0
VODI 0 392 51 1177 531 0 0 0
ODI 0 59 8 438 2678 71 0 0
CDI 0 28 8 107 3133 6242 135 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 30 2233 6373 2651

Date: 2022-08-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10328 7881 98 314 30 0 0 0
OW 0 557 73 644 87 0 0 0
VODI 0 245 35 1236 530 0 0 0
ODI 0 60 15 535 2414 160 0 0
CDI 0 12 3 185 4254 5676 433 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 58 2754 6136 1109
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10328 7947 93 375 45 0 0 0
OW 0 448 79 556 101 0 0 0
VODI 0 276 34 1259 506 0 0 0
ODI 0 78 15 518 2409 131 0 0
CDI 0 6 3 206 4257 5606 431 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 55 2853 6138 1109

Date: 2022-08-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12184 6423 83 330 9 0 0 0
OW 0 623 58 515 23 0 0 0
VODI 0 238 38 1430 419 0 0 0
ODI 0 12 3 309 5212 65 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 2339 5616 212 0
VCDI 0 2 2 1 18 907 5162 3633
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12184 6404 81 398 40 0 0 0
OW 0 420 56 546 110 1 0 0
VODI 0 293 23 1038 763 31 0 0
ODI 0 165 14 399 2510 191 0 0
CDI 0 14 8 203 4546 4730 367 84
VCDI 0 2 2 1 51 1635 5007 3549

Date: 2022-08-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12603 6274 91 415 19 0 0 0
OW 6 634 45 577 46 0 0 0
VODI 0 201 33 1366 593 0 0 0
ODI 0 24 9 659 4459 112 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 30 2264 4852 1139 0
VCDI 0 2 2 1 21 372 4254 4763
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12565 6204 85 470 40 0 0 0
OW 32 391 38 526 135 3 0 0
VODI 12 302 28 965 874 21 0 0
ODI 0 172 12 566 2199 165 0 0
CDI 0 65 16 520 4110 4306 1368 29
VCDI 0 1 1 1 44 841 4025 4734

Date: 2022-08-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12787 6490 80 280 42 0 0 0
OW 8 807 64 433 51 0 0 0
VODI 0 343 58 1425 461 0 0 0
ODI 0 46 9 1179 3571 47 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 73 2294 5536 1091 26
VCDI 0 2 1 2 44 1267 5469 1880
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12746 6157 84 368 76 0 0 0
OW 35 557 42 386 100 1 0 0
VODI 14 547 44 890 682 11 0 0
ODI 0 261 27 899 1891 186 0 0
CDI 0 164 14 847 3672 5661 1559 95
VCDI 0 2 1 2 42 991 5001 1811


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