Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2022-07-21

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-07-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5324 6396 108 695 248 0 0 0
OW 2 506 75 768 310 0 0 0
VODI 0 131 44 1171 495 11 0 0
ODI 0 78 10 349 1365 185 0 0
CDI 0 121 8 152 2983 4896 366 0
VCDI 0 118 4 108 899 9852 7108 980
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-07-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5239 6751 101 1006 355 0 0 0
OW 2 307 49 916 355 0 0 0
VODI 0 108 14 953 412 14 0 0
ODI 0 135 13 337 1260 123 28 0
CDI 0 150 8 121 3076 6145 540 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 701 8446 7999 197
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-07-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5285 7641 137 981 257 0 0 0
OW 1 379 62 777 98 4 0 0
VODI 0 119 23 1279 493 11 0 0
ODI 0 113 0 218 2685 212 0 0
CDI 0 31 0 4 2993 6072 366 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 475 8188 6956 2
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-07-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5625 7740 156 1147 231 0 0 0
OW 0 417 62 737 87 0 0 0
VODI 0 133 22 1180 498 1 0 0
ODI 0 120 3 313 2229 391 0 0
CDI 0 13 0 13 2788 6171 577 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 675 6224 6865 1443
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5625 7686 148 1162 217 0 0 0
OW 0 477 70 716 103 1 0 0
VODI 0 139 21 1171 463 1 0 0
ODI 0 114 4 324 2230 422 0 0
CDI 0 7 0 17 2833 6113 559 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 662 6250 6883 1443

Date: 2022-07-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6277 7730 129 934 283 0 0 0
OW 1 474 67 648 83 0 0 0
VODI 0 195 26 1104 411 0 0 0
ODI 0 104 3 349 2320 198 0 0
CDI 0 8 1 51 3655 5208 912 62
VCDI 0 0 0 17 540 6926 5746 1404
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6277 7695 128 981 275 0 0 0
OW 1 512 63 594 103 0 0 0
VODI 0 191 30 1099 407 0 0 0
ODI 0 101 5 359 2296 283 0 0
CDI 0 11 0 55 3709 5080 910 17
VCDI 0 1 0 15 502 6969 5748 1449

Date: 2022-07-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6798 8208 156 971 95 0 0 0
OW 0 339 78 567 41 0 0 0
VODI 0 30 15 1312 347 0 0 0
ODI 0 20 2 399 3160 114 0 0
CDI 0 17 1 51 2963 6728 399 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 89 5153 6841 968
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6798 7728 149 1076 116 0 0 0
OW 0 540 63 490 52 0 0 0
VODI 0 219 35 983 369 1 0 0
ODI 0 105 4 448 2027 358 7 0
CDI 0 20 1 288 3803 5936 1016 27
VCDI 0 2 0 19 328 5700 6217 941

Date: 2022-07-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7140 8562 136 795 99 0 0 0
OW 0 375 72 560 60 0 0 0
VODI 0 60 31 1126 360 1 0 0
ODI 0 3 1 425 2835 278 14 0
CDI 0 0 0 31 3418 5755 1430 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 59 3377 6237 2622
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7140 7981 141 887 127 0 0 0
OW 0 578 46 429 62 0 0 0
VODI 0 397 50 676 363 9 0 0
ODI 0 43 3 568 1904 506 29 0
CDI 0 1 0 375 4152 5192 1926 69
VCDI 0 0 0 6 223 3704 5726 2553

Date: 2022-07-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7380 8883 141 544 66 0 0 0
OW 0 318 75 586 75 0 0 0
VODI 0 44 20 920 572 1 0 0
ODI 0 2 1 532 2310 635 6 0
CDI 0 1 0 169 3442 4879 2028 203
VCDI 0 0 0 18 41 2049 5643 4282
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7380 8368 131 587 90 0 0 0
OW 0 614 56 428 81 0 0 0
VODI 0 240 42 618 540 51 0 0
ODI 0 25 7 558 1532 711 48 0
CDI 0 1 1 495 4145 4661 2450 271
VCDI 0 0 0 83 118 2141 5179 4214


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