Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-06-30

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-06-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83954 19637 309 1789 268 18 0 0
OW 33 1032 143 1690 782 63 13 0
VODI 0 369 65 1435 2664 408 83 0
ODI 0 264 20 487 2143 1355 243 0
CDI 0 297 54 693 3180 4638 1105 0
VCDI 0 6 6 136 6449 14302 23485 13430
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-06-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85294 19453 331 1652 332 39 0 0
OW 29 1080 90 1559 1252 114 18 0
VODI 0 496 77 1255 2209 581 82 0
ODI 0 316 25 617 2119 1088 141 0
CDI 0 296 62 863 4012 4876 989 0
VCDI 0 16 4 178 10665 13219 24969 6650
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-06-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85788 20767 311 1470 318 22 0 0
OW 24 709 170 1442 626 43 5 0
VODI 0 226 51 1811 2054 95 10 0
ODI 0 93 19 888 3961 707 12 0
CDI 0 87 21 536 5090 7579 802 0
VCDI 0 1 1 83 11400 16953 21311 1562
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-06-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86123 21176 306 1518 297 38 0 0
OW 19 700 144 1824 879 54 4 0
VODI 0 251 58 1621 2521 267 6 0
ODI 0 88 23 698 3217 1260 6 0
CDI 0 90 14 541 5557 7685 1577 0
VCDI 0 0 0 76 8176 21069 17698 1467
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86124 21275 337 1900 422 61 1 0
OW 18 624 103 1503 821 47 4 0
VODI 0 235 69 1539 2484 252 5 0
ODI 0 84 21 713 3061 1214 7 0
CDI 0 87 15 551 5678 7640 1628 0
VCDI 0 0 0 72 8181 21159 17646 1467

Date: 2022-07-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87925 20504 282 1369 367 36 0 0
OW 16 1061 143 1966 660 57 0 0
VODI 0 330 90 1968 2062 207 0 0
ODI 0 93 24 772 2895 1144 0 0
CDI 0 76 15 713 5494 9678 851 0
VCDI 0 1 0 81 3940 23804 17256 1168
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87925 20849 308 1737 437 59 0 0
OW 16 778 126 1733 640 45 0 0
VODI 0 273 81 1815 2062 177 0 0
ODI 0 85 21 795 2777 1203 0 0
CDI 0 79 18 706 5530 9652 849 0
VCDI 0 1 0 83 3972 23790 17258 1168

Date: 2022-07-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88592 21389 264 1218 270 11 0 0
OW 14 1004 235 1811 322 20 0 0
VODI 0 144 53 2455 1682 53 0 0
ODI 0 152 21 728 4629 692 0 0
CDI 0 75 25 512 5901 12603 705 0
VCDI 0 2 0 12 2040 22735 16201 478
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88592 21075 305 1738 465 25 0 0
OW 14 902 131 1707 738 37 0 0
VODI 0 454 92 1476 2055 313 0 0
ODI 0 178 32 830 2480 1156 0 0
CDI 0 146 37 936 5460 10307 1728 1
VCDI 0 11 1 49 3646 24276 15178 477

Date: 2022-07-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89859 21840 255 1166 261 17 0 0
OW 12 909 213 1850 423 15 0 0
VODI 0 285 62 2197 1839 51 0 0
ODI 0 156 21 811 3964 499 2 0
CDI 0 34 11 611 6913 13199 588 0
VCDI 0 0 0 15 2199 24977 11669 125
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89859 20971 259 1656 478 24 0 0
OW 12 1275 133 1358 775 17 0 0
VODI 0 585 101 1550 1989 206 0 0
ODI 0 229 40 983 2408 711 4 0
CDI 0 163 29 1071 6963 12111 2012 28
VCDI 0 1 0 32 2986 25689 10243 97

Date: 2022-07-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89727 22633 310 1439 246 20 0 0
OW 11 880 176 1808 695 18 0 0
VODI 0 339 64 1973 2174 126 1 0
ODI 0 136 25 723 3455 578 6 0
CDI 0 156 21 665 7098 14487 878 0
VCDI 0 36 1 74 1819 26814 7393 43
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89727 21817 294 1907 605 20 0 0
OW 11 1176 112 1115 972 27 0 0
VODI 0 570 107 1541 1964 351 1 0
ODI 0 262 31 918 2019 751 26 0
CDI 0 318 52 1122 7397 14555 1900 0
VCDI 0 37 1 79 2530 26339 6351 43


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