Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2022-03-03

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-02-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67610 13317 142 712 435 108 23 0
OW 68 599 46 302 277 67 19 0
VODI 8 388 38 310 447 123 25 0
ODI 0 196 26 192 459 170 37 0
CDI 0 91 15 180 587 340 66 0
VCDI 0 18 7 110 1257 4186 9850 6249
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-02-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67500 13134 124 773 684 148 0 0
OW 77 478 52 354 294 153 3 0
VODI 10 332 28 259 466 218 9 0
ODI 0 164 22 169 491 239 16 0
CDI 0 122 10 133 595 617 49 0
VCDI 0 75 18 157 1185 4460 8989 6493
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-03-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66963 13991 130 740 529 161 19 0
OW 56 480 59 364 302 58 10 0
VODI 0 205 43 392 502 141 14 0
ODI 0 93 7 174 603 228 27 0
CDI 0 74 10 114 728 611 149 0
VCDI 0 3 7 89 795 4606 8588 7035
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-03-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66877 14030 133 667 501 162 58 0
OW 55 492 53 362 294 68 23 0
VODI 0 233 43 416 496 106 40 0
ODI 0 102 12 249 547 202 39 0
CDI 0 56 7 136 722 633 84 1
VCDI 0 27 11 119 828 4408 8839 6969
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66877 14030 131 669 523 168 59 0
OW 55 485 46 343 279 60 22 0
VODI 0 249 49 437 474 100 38 0
ODI 0 100 15 238 554 188 41 0
CDI 0 50 7 143 738 631 78 1
VCDI 0 26 11 119 820 4432 8845 6969

Date: 2022-03-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66629 14270 154 819 441 128 77 0
OW 55 476 53 396 282 18 41 0
VODI 0 249 41 342 564 55 52 0
ODI 0 102 17 180 624 138 51 0
CDI 0 28 17 232 863 624 155 0
VCDI 0 1 4 61 1118 4323 8673 6747
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66629 14301 154 793 452 129 84 0
OW 55 454 48 400 273 18 36 0
VODI 0 244 44 364 539 50 47 0
ODI 0 95 20 200 623 150 50 0
CDI 0 31 17 223 860 592 156 0
VCDI 0 1 3 50 1145 4347 8676 6747

Date: 2022-03-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66151 14488 164 892 586 108 30 0
OW 54 496 61 508 325 39 15 0
VODI 0 139 45 539 617 77 16 0
ODI 0 19 14 258 921 180 26 0
CDI 0 0 1 123 1012 1011 109 0
VCDI 0 0 0 58 946 4497 8010 6565
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66150 14246 157 988 712 136 45 0
OW 55 556 46 362 305 63 23 0
VODI 0 261 49 367 490 105 36 0
ODI 0 68 22 270 632 161 62 0
CDI 0 11 9 250 989 769 156 0
VCDI 0 0 2 141 1279 4678 7884 6565

Date: 2022-03-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66488 14406 138 799 486 123 32 0
OW 55 635 67 436 318 36 18 0
VODI 0 219 62 471 532 52 24 0
ODI 0 50 19 287 702 121 35 0
CDI 0 13 8 141 1152 604 115 0
VCDI 0 0 2 130 1065 4406 7540 7313
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66488 14106 146 940 614 148 65 0
OW 55 648 38 295 310 46 38 0
VODI 0 376 54 345 517 71 54 0
ODI 0 130 32 263 470 157 62 0
CDI 0 49 19 206 951 613 201 0
VCDI 0 14 7 215 1393 4307 7344 7313

Date: 2022-03-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67193 14181 120 812 573 94 21 0
OW 54 639 54 265 336 45 18 0
VODI 0 458 35 306 430 92 28 0
ODI 0 153 43 225 449 179 36 0
CDI 0 62 21 274 737 651 78 0
VCDI 0 151 16 443 1256 4156 7538 6878
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67193 13510 135 833 725 170 61 0
OW 54 691 17 207 308 63 33 0
VODI 0 575 47 276 313 155 50 0
ODI 0 306 25 192 384 195 53 0
CDI 0 297 31 252 639 619 96 0
VCDI 0 265 34 565 1412 4015 7426 6878


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