Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2022-01-06

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-12-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74004 13716 158 539 374 380 26 0
OW 72 453 44 315 108 21 20 0
VODI 0 242 28 332 258 43 20 0
ODI 0 44 19 210 343 64 19 0
CDI 0 21 0 141 461 307 52 0
VCDI 0 0 2 49 660 2064 8546 4945
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-01-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73510 13895 137 451 292 424 76 0
OW 73 568 68 305 63 23 20 0
VODI 0 299 36 366 212 25 22 0
ODI 0 157 15 220 316 37 19 0
CDI 0 53 11 171 520 200 37 0
VCDI 0 7 5 91 925 2193 8400 4858
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-01-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73773 13529 172 669 285 328 109 0
OW 115 408 42 322 133 44 29 0
VODI 11 262 33 338 268 17 23 0
ODI 0 97 7 224 348 35 20 0
CDI 0 62 3 168 488 189 61 0
VCDI 0 7 3 113 888 2104 8193 5180
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-01-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72400 14231 171 709 351 189 107 0
OW 78 515 37 287 216 27 31 0
VODI 0 353 36 265 316 49 30 0
ODI 0 149 16 214 314 93 26 0
CDI 0 108 10 156 421 322 71 0
VCDI 0 0 0 89 706 2131 8907 4969
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72400 14251 170 722 361 197 104 0
OW 77 477 40 277 197 21 33 0
VODI 1 357 32 252 324 42 29 0
ODI 0 155 16 220 298 93 23 0
CDI 0 116 12 153 426 305 72 0
VCDI 0 0 0 96 718 2153 8911 4969

Date: 2022-01-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72275 14162 158 662 324 79 104 0
OW 74 595 46 268 209 28 25 0
VODI 0 384 32 273 311 52 23 0
ODI 0 203 22 166 335 103 29 0
CDI 0 102 19 237 430 314 73 0
VCDI 0 4 1 144 638 1915 10318 3963
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72274 14167 159 654 343 82 104 0
OW 75 573 46 273 187 27 23 0
VODI 0 335 30 260 293 48 23 0
ODI 0 241 21 158 325 96 23 0
CDI 0 130 17 225 434 326 85 0
VCDI 0 4 5 180 665 1912 10314 3963

Date: 2022-01-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72370 14527 166 576 222 70 54 0
OW 74 512 58 401 167 16 15 0
VODI 0 259 42 364 353 49 6 0
ODI 0 124 16 179 485 101 9 0
CDI 0 5 5 122 575 406 47 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 443 2001 9002 5270
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72368 13812 153 575 262 81 73 0
OW 76 729 41 253 174 33 9 0
VODI 0 466 39 292 281 65 8 0
ODI 0 234 29 203 329 151 17 0
CDI 0 175 24 210 477 299 50 0
VCDI 0 11 1 118 722 2014 8976 5270

Date: 2022-01-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72366 14511 164 495 196 65 88 0
OW 74 702 70 389 111 5 7 0
VODI 0 305 53 428 319 8 8 0
ODI 0 97 15 259 479 45 8 0
CDI 0 5 3 166 576 320 54 0
VCDI 0 0 0 48 710 2692 8140 5119
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72364 13961 140 455 222 73 101 0
OW 76 615 58 255 120 9 10 0
VODI 0 587 50 380 244 33 5 0
ODI 0 270 35 260 393 74 16 0
CDI 0 139 21 258 489 222 18 0
VCDI 0 48 1 177 923 2724 8155 5119

Date: 2022-01-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71351 14804 121 481 294 114 116 0
OW 75 623 53 331 112 10 13 0
VODI 0 379 71 486 424 40 14 0
ODI 0 75 22 304 503 67 29 0
CDI 0 23 8 227 643 287 98 0
VCDI 0 12 4 117 1077 2939 7793 4960
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71366 14376 107 499 346 123 141 0
OW 60 654 58 210 73 12 14 0
VODI 0 470 39 359 222 40 25 0
ODI 0 264 39 305 425 40 29 0
CDI 0 139 22 306 666 161 22 0
VCDI 0 13 14 267 1321 3081 7832 4960


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