Description of algorithm Full domain American sector European sector Asian sector   Ice concntr, edge pos   Contingency tables GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2021-11-25

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-11-19:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 41 1712 31 135 37 0 0 0 OW 1 90 15 137 93 5 0 0 VODI 0 31 10 59 132 51 0 0 ODI 0 26 2 25 86 84 0 0 CDI 0 9 2 23 88 107 18 8 VCDI 0 1 1 20 184 884 6422 21512	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-11-21:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 24 1710 14 37 3 0 0 0 OW 0 165 20 88 15 3 0 0 VODI 0 94 8 123 91 14 0 0 ODI 0 56 4 47 71 16 4 0 CDI 0 22 10 52 75 72 29 25 VCDI 0 0 0 61 201 1047 5501 22380	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-11-23:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 16 1538 29 68 5 0 0 0 OW 0 115 12 102 22 0 0 0 VODI 0 65 10 119 82 6 0 0 ODI 0 28 5 51 156 13 0 0 CDI 0 29 2 35 140 50 41 13 VCDI 0 38 7 73 230 1247 7290 20445	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-11-25:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 1 1191 34 159 30 0 0 0 OW 0 44 16 115 69 0 0 0 VODI 0 6 3 73 139 29 0 0 ODI 0 0 1 25 134 67 0 0 CDI 0 0 0 10 98 149 85 1 VCDI 0 0 0 6 100 946 8505 20046	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 1 1182 35 173 32 0 0 0 OW 0 47 14 101 75 3 0 0 VODI 0 12 4 77 137 26 0 0 ODI 0 0 1 21 134 64 0 0 CDI 0 0 0 9 90 193 79 1 VCDI 0 0 0 7 102 905 8511 20046

Date: 2021-11-27:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 8 860 41 179 78 4 0 0 OW 0 5 3 117 137 33 0 0 VODI 0 0 0 53 127 72 8 0 ODI 0 0 0 9 86 91 33 0 CDI 0 0 0 0 43 197 134 37 VCDI 0 0 0 0 33 607 8357 20730	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 8 854 37 182 94 7 0 0 OW 0 11 7 105 127 35 0 0 VODI 0 0 0 62 117 76 8 0 ODI 0 0 0 9 85 88 38 0 CDI 0 0 0 0 49 185 129 37 VCDI 0 0 0 0 32 613 8357 20730

Date: 2021-11-29:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 0 702 36 177 75 1 0 0 OW 0 51 8 101 80 9 0 0 VODI 0 0 2 63 188 30 0 0 ODI 0 0 0 6 125 105 0 0 CDI 0 0 0 1 38 217 91 2 VCDI 0 0 0 0 42 721 6893 22318	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 0 706 35 220 141 27 0 0 OW 0 45 7 56 105 46 0 0 VODI 0 2 4 45 130 72 13 0 ODI 0 0 0 12 72 82 35 0 CDI 0 0 0 8 35 144 58 8 VCDI 0 0 0 7 65 712 6878 22312

Date: 2021-12-01:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 0 664 29 79 55 5 0 0 OW 0 52 9 91 61 8 0 0 VODI 0 42 1 52 179 17 0 0 ODI 0 4 3 28 124 68 0 0 CDI 0 0 0 9 67 173 1 1 VCDI 0 0 0 0 51 848 5593 23768	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 0 707 33 127 130 14 0 0 OW 0 39 6 73 109 25 0 0 VODI 0 16 2 37 152 81 1 0 ODI 0 0 1 17 61 128 6 0 CDI 0 0 0 5 42 146 49 16 VCDI 0 0 0 0 43 725 5538 23753

Date: 2021-12-03:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 0 517 14 61 25 0 0 0 OW 0 81 14 88 46 2 0 0 VODI 0 36 10 85 77 13 0 0 ODI 0 28 1 39 100 61 0 0 CDI 0 2 2 23 96 147 0 14 VCDI 0 0 0 3 70 638 5318 24471	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 0 589 29 147 68 8 0 0 OW 0 31 5 64 101 22 0 0 VODI 0 36 5 46 121 106 0 0 ODI 0 8 2 26 80 133 7 2 CDI 0 0 0 16 38 191 24 90 VCDI 0 0 0 0 6 401 5287 24393

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