Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-10-21

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-10-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 111517 17950 158 651 235 7 0 0
OW 1 1928 195 1144 677 41 0 0
VODI 0 328 88 1033 1380 310 6 0
ODI 0 69 14 377 866 450 163 0
CDI 0 15 5 144 1024 1120 336 0
VCDI 0 0 0 28 601 4906 15516 23765
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-10-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 110102 16844 202 755 209 1 0 0
OW 32 1683 144 958 824 147 0 0
VODI 0 457 93 948 1595 913 26 0
ODI 0 88 25 317 963 977 151 0
CDI 0 37 13 152 922 1055 425 0
VCDI 0 0 0 63 572 6858 14309 24188
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-10-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 109377 16017 222 1068 137 0 0 0
OW 16 888 155 1198 588 33 0 0
VODI 0 154 64 854 1228 205 0 0
ODI 0 18 8 196 1364 981 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 64 912 2940 284 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 620 6700 18537 22202
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-10-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 108330 14007 180 779 186 0 0 0
OW 12 1449 165 1463 1230 214 0 0
VODI 0 374 74 898 1135 666 2 0
ODI 0 94 31 454 904 733 20 0
CDI 0 18 11 242 1085 1495 374 22
VCDI 0 0 0 64 1274 8482 18140 22441
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 108331 14317 215 1034 233 10 0 0
OW 11 1179 134 1173 1053 164 0 0
VODI 0 343 68 950 1232 628 2 0
ODI 0 92 34 449 964 788 35 0
CDI 0 10 9 235 1077 1564 358 29
VCDI 0 1 1 59 1255 8436 18141 22434

Date: 2021-10-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 107411 12979 156 732 188 4 0 0
OW 32 1363 98 930 1113 435 7 0
VODI 0 465 65 756 1459 1322 62 0
ODI 0 92 32 376 819 1098 114 0
CDI 0 18 18 288 990 1181 474 9
VCDI 0 0 0 67 1310 7601 17567 25417
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 107415 13446 181 888 347 32 0 0
OW 28 922 80 768 927 443 14 0
VODI 0 427 59 781 1517 1210 43 0
ODI 0 106 32 369 856 1092 106 0
CDI 0 16 17 285 940 1250 525 6
VCDI 0 0 0 58 1292 7614 17536 25420

Date: 2021-10-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 105899 13623 177 617 159 0 0 0
OW 14 628 106 920 186 5 0 0
VODI 0 114 44 1162 992 29 0 0
ODI 0 7 3 198 2448 436 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 48 1200 3972 425 48
VCDI 0 0 0 8 368 6943 18529 27739
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 105815 12792 165 932 388 1 0 0
OW 98 1233 85 811 599 408 0 0
VODI 0 288 58 699 1489 1403 205 0
ODI 0 51 16 305 1225 1059 319 0
CDI 0 9 6 170 916 1665 487 63
VCDI 0 0 0 36 736 6849 17943 27724

Date: 2021-10-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 103974 14160 162 691 234 23 0 0
OW 11 554 72 736 491 76 0 0
VODI 0 142 31 689 999 351 1 0
ODI 0 12 2 211 938 927 10 0
CDI 0 4 1 36 901 2912 405 0
VCDI 0 0 0 11 314 8294 18399 30274
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 103757 13226 135 732 342 96 0 0
OW 222 1018 57 599 519 399 46 0
VODI 6 497 45 510 1126 1522 528 0
ODI 0 101 24 323 575 1479 772 0
CDI 0 29 6 161 793 1897 742 26
VCDI 0 1 1 49 522 7190 16727 30248

Date: 2021-10-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 102515 14325 145 742 265 33 0 0
OW 11 676 84 649 442 100 0 0
VODI 0 170 46 611 858 503 58 0
ODI 0 24 5 184 703 771 174 0
CDI 0 13 2 62 630 1807 347 0
VCDI 0 2 0 20 278 7959 21783 30051
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 102513 13420 122 737 419 117 26 0
OW 13 991 58 416 468 301 109 0
VODI 0 592 61 571 744 1640 323 0
ODI 0 138 26 288 479 1588 998 0
CDI 0 42 10 151 520 1934 1215 0
VCDI 0 27 5 105 546 5593 19691 30051


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