Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2021-08-26

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-08-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11399 6494 96 475 38 0 0 0
OW 0 306 50 579 63 4 0 0
VODI 0 60 30 2871 1166 11 0 0
ODI 0 7 1 367 3388 603 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 1723 5556 3435 719
VCDI 0 16 4 78 158 1379 4593 193
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-08-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11925 6171 82 491 78 0 0 0
OW 0 374 50 592 119 0 0 0
VODI 0 197 48 3119 1270 14 0 0
ODI 0 1 1 440 2690 557 2 0
CDI 0 0 1 37 1966 6621 2999 69
VCDI 0 5 2 68 128 1372 3944 433
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-08-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11851 6532 80 459 46 0 0 0
OW 13 511 43 529 48 0 0 0
VODI 0 334 93 3711 656 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 350 4244 271 0 0
CDI 0 7 2 48 2847 4239 880 0
VCDI 0 0 0 43 153 1857 5587 432
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-08-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12902 5732 73 423 28 0 0 0
OW 19 696 57 635 48 0 0 0
VODI 0 419 99 3561 715 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 368 3448 470 0 0
CDI 0 10 0 26 4158 2736 1009 0
VCDI 0 23 7 80 115 1992 4602 1414
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12913 5811 81 558 29 0 0 0
OW 8 460 41 566 44 0 0 0
VODI 0 576 107 3242 583 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 628 3627 469 0 0
CDI 0 8 0 18 4059 2493 990 0
VCDI 0 25 7 81 170 2234 4621 1414

Date: 2021-08-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12797 5951 68 352 32 20 0 0
OW 11 1005 69 744 60 7 0 0
VODI 0 643 107 3164 576 12 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 600 3040 467 8 0
CDI 0 11 4 54 3795 3267 868 2
VCDI 0 1 4 38 311 2380 5188 210
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12805 6192 81 501 28 21 0 0
OW 3 584 39 469 65 4 0 0
VODI 0 823 124 3057 509 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 839 3129 448 15 0
CDI 0 11 4 47 3693 2467 798 0
VCDI 0 1 4 39 390 3203 5251 212

Date: 2021-08-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12416 6672 103 310 35 14 0 0
OW 0 1515 101 611 17 4 0 0
VODI 0 230 92 3850 458 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 258 5076 216 0 0
CDI 0 17 5 127 2473 4691 315 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 20 1289 4859 84
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12414 6770 114 480 41 15 0 0
OW 2 694 45 573 43 6 0 0
VODI 0 950 133 2870 485 9 0 0
ODI 0 3 4 1044 2622 167 5 0
CDI 0 0 2 145 4154 1555 877 0
VCDI 0 17 3 45 734 4469 4292 84

Date: 2021-09-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12044 7269 105 442 18 1 0 0
OW 0 1327 127 1342 23 1 0 0
VODI 0 61 35 3120 768 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 345 4180 180 0 0
CDI 0 17 4 152 3289 3869 442 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 9 3147 3530 11
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12042 7157 115 725 29 2 0 0
OW 2 763 63 766 73 1 0 0
VODI 0 731 88 2740 564 2 0 0
ODI 0 6 2 902 2242 73 1 0
CDI 0 1 0 207 4110 1455 665 0
VCDI 0 16 4 66 1269 5667 3306 11

Date: 2021-09-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12985 6393 78 409 16 3 0 0
OW 0 1578 138 1343 157 2 0 0
VODI 0 112 54 2560 1033 4 0 0
ODI 0 1 1 344 2887 249 0 0
CDI 0 21 9 125 2594 4647 393 0
VCDI 0 1 1 3 18 3205 4405 97
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12985 6102 86 648 40 4 0 0
OW 0 1097 49 528 112 2 0 0
VODI 0 874 134 2331 782 23 0 0
ODI 0 11 2 1048 1741 154 5 0
CDI 0 0 2 146 3559 1994 740 0
VCDI 0 22 8 83 471 5933 4053 97


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