Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2021-06-24

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-06-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 3283 130 858 209 35 0 0
OW 0 340 43 594 313 17 0 0
VODI 0 126 14 501 909 42 0 0
ODI 0 96 9 249 1101 294 8 0
CDI 0 257 20 219 1686 4978 131 0
VCDI 0 44 5 133 1247 13091 5965 8919
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-06-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68 3603 136 920 229 0 0 0
OW 7 318 38 627 511 6 0 0
VODI 0 166 15 412 826 21 0 0
ODI 0 131 12 246 1169 396 12 0
CDI 0 211 18 165 1415 4731 586 0
VCDI 0 62 9 97 1890 15466 8449 2898
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-06-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 126 4441 164 929 224 0 0 0
OW 7 188 30 723 236 0 0 0
VODI 0 78 10 553 764 12 0 0
ODI 0 70 11 219 1907 301 17 0
CDI 0 101 12 126 1723 4982 197 0
VCDI 0 1 1 49 2890 13996 6146 4632
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-06-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 246 4872 166 887 122 20 0 0
OW 4 235 39 752 257 9 0 0
VODI 0 116 20 564 821 20 0 0
ODI 0 84 17 228 2263 55 10 0
CDI 0 104 12 165 3071 3259 390 0
VCDI 0 2 1 75 1530 14904 6621 3925
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 246 4911 179 1048 143 24 0 0
OW 4 194 33 623 224 6 0 0
VODI 0 101 11 491 900 22 0 0
ODI 0 89 17 265 2176 66 10 0
CDI 0 117 15 171 3082 3212 392 0
VCDI 0 1 0 73 1539 14937 6619 3925

Date: 2021-06-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 597 5391 143 706 115 15 0 0
OW 6 341 33 581 261 10 0 0
VODI 0 160 27 519 1076 143 2 0
ODI 0 93 14 316 2277 107 9 0
CDI 0 91 8 220 1942 3073 1441 0
VCDI 0 7 6 102 1785 9643 9588 5018
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 597 5501 155 803 144 17 0 0
OW 6 262 27 469 405 11 0 0
VODI 0 121 23 503 949 174 3 0
ODI 0 76 9 329 1957 85 7 0
CDI 0 118 12 239 2213 3048 1351 0
VCDI 0 5 5 101 1788 9656 9679 5018

Date: 2021-06-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 824 5985 139 550 98 26 0 0
OW 1 246 52 516 90 11 0 0
VODI 0 93 25 977 720 28 5 0
ODI 0 48 8 197 3176 278 14 0
CDI 0 91 11 277 2125 3510 453 0
VCDI 0 6 2 58 2259 8147 10157 4663
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 824 5767 134 765 245 32 0 0
OW 1 275 46 407 625 19 0 0
VODI 0 131 27 607 903 55 7 0
ODI 0 98 7 316 1503 498 14 0
CDI 0 151 13 321 2266 2902 1922 17
VCDI 0 47 10 159 2926 8494 8686 4646

Date: 2021-06-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 738 6622 128 467 112 12 0 0
OW 0 330 64 767 87 4 0 0
VODI 0 114 28 1055 1079 25 7 0
ODI 0 23 8 263 2488 215 46 0
CDI 0 27 6 234 1371 5630 610 0
VCDI 0 63 0 61 1256 9131 7801 4994
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 738 6281 122 807 483 14 0 0
OW 0 374 37 430 469 8 0 0
VODI 0 259 51 599 798 44 4 0
ODI 0 116 4 540 1555 190 43 0
CDI 0 86 20 391 1418 5292 1229 0
VCDI 0 63 0 80 1670 9469 7188 4994

Date: 2021-07-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1715 6084 92 534 82 26 0 0
OW 3 613 87 747 135 22 1 0
VODI 0 211 38 1337 732 148 6 0
ODI 0 21 6 431 1476 352 41 0
CDI 0 22 6 201 595 5544 2162 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 481 9734 8441 3740
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1715 5723 117 1122 265 38 0 0
OW 3 483 31 647 166 34 0 0
VODI 0 454 44 548 598 99 1 0
ODI 0 204 22 603 1124 304 36 0
CDI 0 87 15 293 818 5304 2464 8
VCDI 0 0 0 37 530 10047 8150 3732


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