Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-06-24

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-06-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82117 18312 377 2236 430 48 0 0
OW 18 860 117 1763 707 78 0 0
VODI 0 319 56 1524 2503 238 0 0
ODI 0 155 14 552 3416 1211 8 0
CDI 0 273 24 447 5296 11159 549 0
VCDI 0 44 5 133 1904 19420 14364 16371
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-06-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82550 18831 380 2414 462 16 0 0
OW 23 837 127 1986 1001 35 0 0
VODI 0 421 55 1522 2628 292 0 0
ODI 0 174 26 656 3211 1095 16 0
CDI 0 260 29 515 5516 10355 1289 0
VCDI 0 63 9 121 3835 21060 16891 8347
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-06-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83079 20451 465 2516 401 6 0 0
OW 19 445 124 2156 608 12 0 0
VODI 0 135 29 1841 2643 110 2 0
ODI 0 111 21 556 5506 847 20 0
CDI 0 105 15 391 5095 12457 796 0
VCDI 0 1 1 62 4028 17809 14832 9353
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-06-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81596 23131 468 2355 452 21 0 0
OW 13 507 130 2124 1176 26 1 0
VODI 0 173 44 1681 3045 147 1 0
ODI 0 100 26 557 5247 736 14 0
CDI 0 104 13 391 5475 11334 1680 0
VCDI 0 2 1 75 1740 19140 16111 7211
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81596 23229 502 2820 641 27 0 0
OW 13 399 103 1776 1180 28 1 0
VODI 0 166 36 1519 2991 127 2 0
ODI 0 105 25 569 4943 684 14 0
CDI 0 117 16 426 5651 11062 1609 0
VCDI 0 1 0 73 1729 19476 16181 7211

Date: 2021-06-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85442 21111 420 2138 616 15 0 0
OW 15 762 141 1980 1295 24 0 0
VODI 0 289 71 1442 3128 393 5 0
ODI 0 105 22 601 4947 889 52 0
CDI 0 93 10 515 4086 10170 2967 0
VCDI 0 7 6 102 2170 12106 18034 10879
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85442 21313 463 2543 930 18 0 0
OW 15 584 107 1632 1322 36 0 0
VODI 0 251 64 1336 2906 385 14 0
ODI 0 94 17 596 4424 841 61 0
CDI 0 120 14 570 4458 9933 2816 0
VCDI 0 5 5 101 2202 12384 18167 10879

Date: 2021-06-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85494 22560 376 1834 618 26 0 0
OW 9 628 186 1661 608 15 0 0
VODI 0 151 59 2544 2232 61 5 0
ODI 0 60 12 537 7231 763 19 0
CDI 0 93 14 383 3411 11537 1295 0
VCDI 0 6 2 59 2300 11292 22601 6366
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85495 22254 416 2591 1441 41 0 0
OW 8 615 126 1491 1393 99 2 0
VODI 0 292 62 1523 2550 402 65 0
ODI 0 113 15 629 3624 1607 157 0
CDI 0 177 20 624 4122 9705 3911 17
VCDI 0 47 10 160 3270 11840 19785 6349

Date: 2021-06-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87284 21948 358 2037 600 12 0 0
OW 49 745 210 2096 614 5 0 0
VODI 5 194 53 2286 2808 66 7 0
ODI 0 33 12 503 5928 1160 49 0
CDI 0 36 7 328 2767 12820 2317 0
VCDI 0 63 0 62 1554 14699 16604 6729
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87331 21380 393 2996 1468 33 0 0
OW 7 851 111 1327 1181 89 0 0
VODI 0 488 93 1381 2474 423 44 0
ODI 0 126 16 811 3580 1649 173 0
CDI 0 111 27 716 3263 12119 4151 16
VCDI 0 63 0 81 2305 14449 14609 6713

Date: 2021-07-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89101 21344 330 2359 204 26 0 0
OW 36 1218 233 2327 548 23 1 0
VODI 0 285 63 2899 2234 181 6 0
ODI 0 26 11 966 4518 1388 41 0
CDI 0 35 8 315 2155 14018 3429 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 639 15172 15809 5099
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89128 20704 392 3750 772 49 0 0
OW 9 1164 106 1621 727 93 0 0
VODI 0 702 92 1562 2049 432 1 0
ODI 0 234 35 1049 3309 1790 44 0
CDI 0 104 20 847 2627 14472 4291 8
VCDI 0 0 0 38 814 13972 14950 5091


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