Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2021-06-03

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-05-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 487 34 200 40 2 0 0
OW 0 126 20 229 148 16 0 0
VODI 0 115 17 247 369 56 10 0
ODI 0 75 13 242 397 127 18 0
CDI 0 112 21 313 1225 1467 229 0
VCDI 0 80 10 226 812 5992 19559 12832
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-05-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 530 28 153 52 0 0 0
OW 0 106 9 249 200 8 7 0
VODI 0 137 22 230 321 71 11 0
ODI 0 131 9 238 420 239 20 0
CDI 0 138 19 253 1352 1628 407 0
VCDI 0 172 9 201 886 6823 16540 14247
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-06-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 697 56 291 75 0 0 0
OW 0 130 12 319 179 12 2 0
VODI 0 80 6 315 418 55 7 0
ODI 0 58 6 182 752 248 42 0
CDI 0 59 5 153 1456 2012 558 0
VCDI 0 165 12 105 443 4416 15190 17350
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-06-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 732 66 429 102 0 0 0
OW 0 133 18 335 219 24 1 0
VODI 0 98 9 314 426 56 9 0
ODI 0 55 9 173 744 260 46 0
CDI 0 51 1 136 1507 2027 750 3
VCDI 0 159 15 126 668 4565 18935 12665
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 763 71 508 135 2 0 0
OW 0 120 15 247 201 16 3 0
VODI 0 76 6 313 405 65 8 0
ODI 0 54 10 178 692 271 52 0
CDI 0 54 1 128 1509 1887 737 5
VCDI 0 161 15 139 724 4691 18941 12663

Date: 2021-06-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 879 80 502 130 4 1 0
OW 0 156 19 346 223 48 4 0
VODI 0 158 9 304 422 76 10 0
ODI 0 83 8 183 680 206 80 0
CDI 0 71 4 131 1459 1885 1658 1
VCDI 0 154 11 177 681 3602 17420 14001
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 906 88 548 165 9 1 0
OW 0 142 11 313 204 43 5 0
VODI 0 137 8 286 380 102 12 0
ODI 0 87 9 183 652 198 73 0
CDI 0 78 5 130 1485 1877 1758 1
VCDI 0 151 10 183 709 3592 17324 14001

Date: 2021-06-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1046 89 549 169 17 2 0
OW 0 159 21 344 176 23 4 0
VODI 0 168 11 375 539 48 6 0
ODI 0 67 5 144 1188 217 13 0
CDI 0 78 6 175 1376 3363 556 0
VCDI 0 107 10 139 391 2966 20286 11033
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 946 91 663 273 34 5 0
OW 0 150 16 292 237 39 1 0
VODI 0 177 10 217 442 134 9 0
ODI 0 108 6 153 707 220 81 0
CDI 0 102 5 182 1507 3083 1875 0
VCDI 0 142 14 219 673 3124 18896 11033

Date: 2021-06-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1361 99 655 177 23 5 0
OW 0 190 28 527 186 36 2 0
VODI 0 189 17 407 598 85 4 0
ODI 0 108 8 280 960 291 29 0
CDI 0 142 11 207 1126 2861 1467 0
VCDI 0 113 10 222 513 2631 12443 17855
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1164 97 732 283 41 6 0
OW 0 196 17 357 158 55 1 0
VODI 0 220 20 353 374 154 27 0
ODI 0 131 10 259 745 199 110 0
CDI 0 268 13 345 1387 2859 2401 0
VCDI 0 124 16 252 613 2619 11405 17855

Date: 2021-06-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1882 120 636 178 37 5 0
OW 0 345 54 498 222 28 4 0
VODI 0 225 18 368 549 148 30 0
ODI 0 146 15 328 735 427 62 2
CDI 0 269 21 229 994 3022 2132 0
VCDI 0 38 5 159 587 3327 12420 15601
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1625 114 644 245 52 4 0
OW 0 313 42 301 156 70 11 0
VODI 0 278 25 373 423 111 61 0
ODI 0 210 13 339 596 296 123 2
CDI 0 384 27 384 1132 3028 2823 0
VCDI 0 95 12 177 713 3432 11631 15601


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