Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2021-05-06

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-04-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71665 14961 166 946 533 84 0 0
OW 71 303 91 610 314 65 0 0
VODI 0 52 25 435 522 78 15 0
ODI 0 9 1 175 590 180 43 0
CDI 0 0 0 70 829 1287 403 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 261 2557 5891 5868
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-05-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72108 15035 164 836 349 126 6 0
OW 67 364 92 620 202 48 17 0
VODI 0 99 31 422 489 64 52 0
ODI 0 8 12 173 551 181 58 0
CDI 0 0 0 58 641 1364 654 0
VCDI 0 0 0 19 371 2004 5538 6277
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-05-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72454 15109 190 882 310 99 0 0
OW 67 243 65 528 223 40 0 0
VODI 0 40 29 375 532 77 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 154 653 203 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 27 753 1603 243 0
VCDI 0 0 0 12 187 2158 6356 5479
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-05-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72525 14997 188 927 304 98 0 0
OW 65 222 30 564 269 42 11 0
VODI 0 55 32 312 583 63 25 0
ODI 0 1 1 170 565 177 52 0
CDI 0 0 0 39 763 1507 573 0
VCDI 0 0 0 15 150 1714 5887 6174
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72525 15038 191 1039 348 101 0 0
OW 65 183 30 445 243 37 12 0
VODI 0 53 28 328 582 70 25 0
ODI 0 1 2 164 540 174 51 0
CDI 0 0 0 36 776 1432 567 0
VCDI 0 0 0 15 145 1787 5893 6174

Date: 2021-05-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72505 15089 196 887 324 94 5 0
OW 64 277 39 516 285 41 21 0
VODI 0 60 23 309 546 87 28 0
ODI 0 9 5 144 518 216 69 0
CDI 0 2 0 16 680 1822 837 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 170 1841 4956 6419
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72505 15123 202 1033 358 94 9 0
OW 64 241 35 357 274 41 16 0
VODI 0 63 22 332 519 90 33 0
ODI 0 8 4 138 514 227 59 0
CDI 0 2 0 12 675 1766 760 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 183 1883 5039 6419

Date: 2021-05-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72988 15030 161 703 293 63 0 0
OW 63 304 69 470 111 50 0 0
VODI 0 52 22 520 441 63 6 0
ODI 0 1 2 149 798 89 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 28 813 2238 448 0
VCDI 0 0 0 15 229 2151 5107 5617
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72988 15009 182 865 323 94 0 0
OW 63 266 43 384 250 56 1 0
VODI 0 105 25 325 473 108 12 0
ODI 0 6 4 210 504 216 57 0
CDI 0 1 0 65 772 1689 619 0
VCDI 0 0 0 36 363 2491 4878 5617

Date: 2021-05-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72651 15196 182 984 364 72 0 0
OW 63 165 41 461 219 64 0 0
VODI 0 30 17 348 496 91 2 0
ODI 0 7 5 141 687 163 21 0
CDI 0 14 2 43 1030 2074 477 0
VCDI 0 18 5 47 237 3238 4759 4686
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72651 15051 184 1126 506 107 0 0
OW 63 247 30 291 371 82 0 0
VODI 0 82 23 309 463 152 12 0
ODI 0 13 5 157 488 272 52 0
CDI 0 1 1 56 849 1784 518 0
VCDI 0 36 9 85 356 3305 4677 4686

Date: 2021-05-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72526 15179 209 1188 336 97 0 0
OW 62 110 28 412 353 69 5 0
VODI 0 33 10 266 548 74 21 0
ODI 0 2 6 140 642 262 50 0
CDI 0 30 5 88 1377 1797 354 0
VCDI 0 15 5 80 353 3528 5799 3041
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72526 15065 192 1198 542 148 1 0
OW 62 194 34 300 405 80 16 0
VODI 0 51 21 328 437 166 39 0
ODI 0 10 1 139 518 287 89 0
CDI 0 3 4 76 1400 1743 380 0
VCDI 0 46 11 133 307 3403 5704 3041


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