Description of algorithm Full domain   Ice concntr, edge pos   Contingency tables American sector European sector Asian sector GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-05-06

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-04-30:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 71665 15018 171 971 561 84 0 0 OW 71 314 93 729 400 65 0 0 VODI 0 52 28 544 734 87 15 0 ODI 0 9 1 231 839 283 79 0 CDI 0 0 0 96 1429 2185 955 25 VCDI 0 0 0 22 770 7076 29467 51979	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-05-02:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 72108 15087 170 885 376 126 6 0 OW 67 457 100 736 243 48 17 0 VODI 0 177 38 535 665 73 52 0 ODI 0 29 20 236 760 250 97 5 CDI 0 0 2 107 1199 1926 1009 127 VCDI 0 0 0 84 1049 6719 26145 55318	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-05-04:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 72454 15287 201 945 360 99 0 0 OW 67 410 75 639 272 40 0 0 VODI 0 137 45 452 694 97 0 0 ODI 0 6 2 188 928 323 43 0 CDI 0 5 4 68 1428 2397 460 103 VCDI 0 1 1 80 698 6954 26934 54151	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-05-06:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 72525 15241 209 1000 347 98 0 0 OW 65 437 38 613 316 44 11 0 VODI 0 115 44 370 784 87 27 0 ODI 0 2 2 215 876 290 82 0 CDI 0 7 2 111 1535 2147 928 21 VCDI 0 4 2 51 748 5721 27612 54321	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 72525 15328 213 1116 399 101 0 0 OW 65 335 37 487 282 37 12 0 VODI 0 130 40 384 750 93 25 0 ODI 0 3 3 214 850 290 69 0 CDI 0 6 2 108 1575 2055 943 15 VCDI 0 4 2 51 750 5811 27611 54327

Date: 2021-05-08:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 72505 15450 205 960 359 94 5 0 OW 64 472 43 588 347 45 21 0 VODI 0 83 31 423 735 135 36 0 ODI 0 9 5 242 867 332 115 0 CDI 0 6 1 101 1470 2529 1485 3 VCDI 0 3 0 45 1083 6464 25655 54032	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 72505 15537 211 1112 394 94 9 0 OW 64 338 38 423 330 41 16 0 VODI 0 131 30 434 709 137 34 0 ODI 0 8 5 255 835 346 89 0 CDI 0 7 1 102 1498 2471 1439 3 VCDI 0 2 0 33 1095 6510 25730 54032

Date: 2021-05-10:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 72988 15641 175 787 331 63 0 0 OW 63 329 74 570 184 50 0 0 VODI 0 71 25 767 723 79 6 0 ODI 0 18 6 268 1365 176 17 0 CDI 0 3 4 146 1839 3330 721 7 VCDI 0 0 0 29 840 7262 28663 49428	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 72988 15459 195 979 378 94 0 0 OW 63 347 45 442 346 60 1 0 VODI 0 190 30 463 701 161 20 0 ODI 0 36 6 338 848 341 100 0 CDI 0 29 5 227 1663 2456 1417 30 VCDI 0 1 3 118 1346 7848 27869 49405

Date: 2021-05-12:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 72651 15789 195 1114 400 72 0 0 OW 63 217 43 565 384 67 0 0 VODI 0 76 23 473 910 130 2 0 ODI 0 30 10 235 1199 417 49 0 CDI 0 33 8 180 2025 3153 868 29 VCDI 0 18 5 210 1330 10191 25395 48489	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 72651 15590 198 1248 591 107 0 0 OW 63 331 32 340 506 100 0 0 VODI 0 125 28 434 801 216 15 0 ODI 0 50 9 282 912 430 109 0 CDI 0 25 7 162 1833 2643 1020 96 VCDI 0 42 10 311 1605 10534 25170 48422

Date: 2021-05-14:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 72526 15675 229 1335 360 97 0 0 OW 62 135 34 532 535 73 5 0 VODI 0 63 14 432 991 123 21 0 ODI 0 31 12 313 1137 580 69 0 CDI 0 74 22 362 2306 3018 891 11 VCDI 0 36 7 288 1730 10947 27599 44373	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 72526 15538 213 1359 641 152 1 0 OW 62 244 40 378 542 95 16 0 VODI 0 89 25 470 785 264 48 0 ODI 0 46 10 279 1005 508 184 0 CDI 0 36 12 278 2264 2884 951 19 VCDI 0 61 18 498 1822 10935 27385 44365

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