Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2021-04-08

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-04-12

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 130 6 61 75 0 0 0
OW 0 17 3 10 50 6 0 0
VODI 0 23 1 1 40 20 0 0
ODI 0 22 0 9 18 54 0 0
CDI 0 29 3 12 59 73 0 0
VCDI 0 216 11 110 270 1106 4926 29541
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 134 7 65 66 0 0 0
OW 0 14 3 5 41 4 0 0
VODI 0 1 0 1 44 16 0 0
ODI 0 13 0 2 23 28 0 0
CDI 0 21 0 4 37 79 3 0
VCDI 0 254 14 126 301 1132 4923 29541

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 24 108 3001
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 24 108 3001

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9982
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9982

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 6 780 4867
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 6 781 4867

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 2
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 4 37 87
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 75 2368 4667
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 4
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 4 49 71
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 75 2351 4681

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 20 8 20 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 84 64 45 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 44 149 2431 2458
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 18 7 25 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 76 76 51 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 54 137 2420 2458

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 11 1 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 59 2 11 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 178 2 46 32 3 0 0
ODI 0 44 0 38 102 18 1 0
CDI 0 38 1 24 112 120 34 8
VCDI 0 149 17 69 208 609 4025 366
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 33 2 3 1 0 0 0
OW 0 57 1 5 12 1 0 0
VODI 0 54 1 38 71 10 0 0
ODI 0 55 1 24 79 30 2 3
CDI 0 67 0 36 71 131 56 10
VCDI 0 213 18 85 220 578 4002 361

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3916 4094 33 110 37 10 0 0
OW 0 324 23 175 95 11 0 0
VODI 0 226 23 217 163 5 0 0
ODI 0 123 23 148 298 9 0 0
CDI 0 62 4 52 116 107 2 0
VCDI 0 27 9 114 224 241 310 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3916 3683 29 172 128 24 0 0
OW 0 419 13 134 99 5 0 0
VODI 0 374 35 155 164 25 0 0
ODI 0 164 11 132 149 33 3 0
CDI 0 105 12 55 140 89 13 0
VCDI 0 111 15 168 253 207 296 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5435 3215 6 29 0 0 0 0
OW 0 147 10 50 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 58 12 98 16 0 0 0
ODI 0 16 5 92 62 11 0 0
CDI 0 3 0 88 277 381 207 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 59 599 820 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5435 2999 5 15 0 0 0 0
OW 0 154 4 24 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 128 7 43 3 0 0 0
ODI 0 78 4 45 18 2 0 0
CDI 0 75 9 111 97 87 43 0
VCDI 0 5 4 119 296 902 984 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7422 3431 68 270 125 3 0 0
OW 0 7 10 129 54 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 63 143 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 142 67 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 82 649 229 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 75 10 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7422 3410 63 309 145 3 0 0
OW 0 28 12 84 69 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 3 53 120 12 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 21 85 70 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 127 591 198 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 122 41 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 48 1 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 10 6 15 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 1 41 11 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 1 25 32 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 133 162 10 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 47 773 3041 1426
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 47 1 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 10 4 5 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 2 31 4 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 28 21 0 0 0
CDI 0 2 1 19 110 89 2 0
VCDI 0 0 1 12 91 846 3049 1426

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 24 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 7 72 45 15 0
CDI 0 0 0 28 117 434 195 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 35 2158 5449 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 17 9 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 102 165 103 0
VCDI 0 0 0 31 130 2468 5556 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12003 4603 47 181 20 0 0 0
OW 0 63 21 211 78 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 3 82 285 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 258 72 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 197 744 79 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 261 602 393 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12003 4628 56 316 60 0 0 0
OW 0 35 11 100 154 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 4 56 263 22 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 138 133 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 118 525 59 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 366 738 416 0


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