Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2021-01-14

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-01-18

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 547 9 40 31 0 0 0
OW 0 80 7 22 18 0 0 0
VODI 0 29 11 71 25 0 0 0
ODI 0 2 6 78 49 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 28 101 7 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 303 1378 7915 26135
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 484 8 35 36 0 0 0
OW 0 93 4 21 19 0 0 0
VODI 0 53 10 50 29 0 0 0
ODI 0 22 3 54 36 0 0 0
CDI 0 6 8 49 83 1 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 40 324 1384 7915 26135

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 11 279 2839
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 11 283 2839

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 28 6 6
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 59 1874 8009
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 37 6 5
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 50 1874 8010

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 19 9 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 70 464 2414 2677
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 13 12 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 77 461 2414 2677

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 12 759 6475
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 12 759 6474

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 4 196 5126
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 4 196 5126

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 135 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 18 6 1 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 2 21 33 28 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 36 196 115 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 66 236 305 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 65 178 2243 2639 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 112 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 20 0 0 1 1 0 0
VODI 0 20 4 2 45 108 0 0
ODI 0 3 4 19 83 93 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 41 136 164 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 127 379 2325 2640 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5109 3525 41 267 168 0 0 0
OW 0 44 14 133 150 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 3 107 190 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 37 242 26 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 304 346 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 32 445 138 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5109 3504 44 312 336 0 0 0
OW 0 47 12 119 155 6 0 0
VODI 0 17 2 61 193 24 0 0
ODI 0 9 0 32 195 57 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 19 127 175 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 80 555 138 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5758 2507 4 4 0 0 0 0
OW 0 121 18 40 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 46 12 121 14 0 0 0
ODI 0 2 3 88 65 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 38 205 68 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 129 676 1619 157
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5758 2321 0 2 0 0 0 0
OW 0 164 7 13 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 108 17 59 8 0 0 0
ODI 0 52 4 91 23 0 0 0
CDI 0 31 9 92 134 23 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 35 248 721 1619 157

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8288 3114 25 99 74 14 0 0
OW 0 114 15 64 7 3 0 0
VODI 0 29 9 86 96 11 0 0
ODI 0 28 5 13 81 61 0 0
CDI 0 16 5 45 103 199 11 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 37 126 202 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8288 3133 42 176 128 31 0 0
OW 0 65 3 44 60 35 1 0
VODI 0 36 2 22 50 68 11 0
ODI 0 30 1 9 23 98 19 0
CDI 0 33 9 38 57 103 53 0
VCDI 0 4 2 26 80 79 129 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 341 7 23 0 0 0 0
OW 0 50 8 32 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 9 65 29 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 33 63 10 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 87 21 8 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 101 424 2671 1796
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 308 6 17 0 0 0 0
OW 0 61 2 21 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 31 13 54 25 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 36 49 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 28 61 6 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 146 449 2679 1796

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 35 0 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1106 5490 1955
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 35 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1106 5490 1956

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 13323 3656 22 17 0 0 0 0
OW 0 251 33 136 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 20 12 290 72 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 53 143 9 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 221 79 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 11 439 988 426 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 13323 3675 24 59 0 0 0 0
OW 0 179 21 124 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 70 20 208 58 0 0 0
ODI 0 3 2 83 84 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 24 166 30 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 16 558 1042 426 0


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